Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points20
- Tyler HerroAssists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds16
Cavaliers- Max StrusPoints29
- James HardenAssists14
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–149
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–149
- Q410.7Myron Gardner makes 1-foot two point shot128–149
- Q420.0Cavaliers delay of game violation126–149
- Q420.0Olivier Sarr makes free throw 2 of 2126–149
- Q420.0Cavaliers offensive team rebound126–148
- Q420.0Olivier Sarr misses free throw 1 of 2126–148
- Q420.0Kasparas Jakucionis loose ball foul126–148
- Q423.4Larry Nance Jr. defensive rebound126–148
- Q430.6Kasparas Jakucionis misses 26-foot three point jumper126–148
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:29Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)MIA 0 – 8 CLE · CLE 75% → 79% +5CLE 75% → 79%+5 pts
- Q19:54Evan Mobley makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)MIA 2 – 13 CLE · CLE 79% → 84% +4CLE 79% → 84%+4 pts
- Q18:35Andrew Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 8 – 17 CLE · MIA 15% → 19% +4MIA 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q14:37Max Strus makes 31-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)MIA 14 – 24 CLE · CLE 78% → 83% +5CLE 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q211:16Kel'el Ware makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 32 – 42 CLE · MIA 13% → 17% +4MIA 13% → 17%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -5.5
- ML MIA +180 / CLE -218
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4
- CLE 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 66.0%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -192
- MIA +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 117.5 – 123.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1600 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | +47 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +115 Elo | CLE 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 68.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.2 | Points scored | 119.04th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 115.014th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +4.08th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 116.55th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.4 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–20 | Road vs home | 23–1410th of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 15th of 301525 | Elo rating | 16008th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–30 | 29–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 20–16 | 21–39 |
| Underdog | 23–14 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 40–33 | 35–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–8 CLE in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.
- Mar 25MIA 120 @ CLE 103Picked CLE 57%Miss
- Nov 12CLE 130 @ MIA 116Picked MIA 63%Miss
- Nov 10CLE 138 @ MIA 140Picked CLE 72%Miss
- Apr 28CLE 138 @ MIA 83PlayoffsPicked CLE 74%Hit
- Apr 26CLE 124 @ MIA 87PlayoffsPicked CLE 64%Hit
- Apr 23MIA 112 @ CLE 121PlayoffsPicked CLE 84%Hit
- Apr 20MIA 100 @ CLE 121PlayoffsPicked CLE 84%Hit
- Mar 5MIA 107 @ CLE 112Picked CLE 86%Hit