Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Norman PowellPoints19
- Bam AdebayoAssists7
- Kel'el WareRebounds11
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints28
- James HardenAssists7
- James HardenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–103
- Q412.0shot clock turnover120–103
- Q434.9Sam Merrill lost ball turnover (Bam Adebayo steals)120–103
- Q439.9James Harden offensive rebound120–103
- Q442.5Keon Ellis misses 24-foot three point jumper120–103
- Q454.9Norman Powell makes 1-foot running dunk (Davion Mitchell assists)120–103
- Q456.1Davion Mitchell defensive rebound118–103
- Q458.4Sam Merrill misses 24-foot three point jumper118–103
- Q41:10Davion Mitchell makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot118–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311.9Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointerMIA 83 – 83 CLE · CLE 41% → 54% +12CLE 41% → 54%+12 pts
- Q411:25Keon Ellis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)MIA 85 – 86 CLE · CLE 45% → 58% +13CLE 45% → 58%+13 pts
- Q410:46Tyler Herro makes 32-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kel'el Ware assists)MIA 88 – 86 CLE · MIA 42% → 55% +13MIA 42% → 55%+13 pts
- Q48:40Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 93 – 90 CLE · MIA 47% → 61% +15MIA 47% → 61%+15 pts
- Q46:58Kel'el Ware makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 100 – 95 CLE · MIA 58% → 73% +15MIA 58% → 73%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -2.5
- ML MIA +124 / CLE -148
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4
- CLE 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 65.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -134
- MIA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 120.5 – 123.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1621 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +41 | +35 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +107 Elo | CLE 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 67.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.2 | Points scored | 119.23rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 114.914th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +4.38th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 112.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.5 | Pace | 101.614th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 19th of 3015–20 | Road vs home | 23–139th of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301504 | Elo rating | 16215th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–30 | 29–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–16 | 21–38 |
| Underdog | 22–14 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 40–32 | 35–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–8 CLE in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.
- Nov 12CLE 130 @ MIA 116Picked MIA 63%Miss
- Nov 10CLE 138 @ MIA 140Picked CLE 72%Miss
- Apr 28CLE 138 @ MIA 83PlayoffsPicked CLE 74%Hit
- Apr 26CLE 124 @ MIA 87PlayoffsPicked CLE 64%Hit
- Apr 23MIA 112 @ CLE 121PlayoffsPicked CLE 84%Hit
- Apr 20MIA 100 @ CLE 121PlayoffsPicked CLE 84%Hit
- Mar 5MIA 107 @ CLE 112Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Jan 29CLE 126 @ MIA 106Picked CLE 63%Hit