Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Kyle FilipowskiPoints26
- Kennedy ChandlerAssists8
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds9
Suns- Jalen GreenPoints31
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Khaman MaluachRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–134
- Q421.7shot clock turnover109–134
- Q446.2Oscar Tshiebwe makes 11-foot floating jump shot (Kennedy Chandler assists)109–134
- Q452.9Ryan Dunn out of bounds lost ball turnover107–134
- Q452.9Ryan Dunn defensive rebound107–134
- Q455.2Brice Sensabaugh misses driving layup107–134
- Q41:03Khaman Maluach kicked ball violation107–134
- Q41:09Jazz defensive team rebound107–134
- Q41:12Rasheer Fleming misses 23-foot three point jumper107–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:21Brice Sensabaugh makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)UTAH 3 – 0 PHX · UTAH 9% → 12% +3UTAH 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q111:02Jalen Green makes 26-foot three pointerUTAH 3 – 3 PHX · PHX 88% → 91% +3PHX 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q19:42Royce O'Neale makes 27-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)UTAH 7 – 6 PHX · PHX 86% → 89% +3PHX 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q17:51Royce O'Neale makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Devin Booker assists)UTAH 13 – 14 PHX · PHX 88% → 91% +3PHX 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q17:01Jalen Green makes 28-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)UTAH 15 – 19 PHX · PHX 91% → 93% +2PHX 91% → 93%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -17.5
- ML UTAH +950 / PHX -1650
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -12.5
- PHX 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- PHX: Elo 88.2%, market 90.8%
- Fair odds
- PHX -990
- UTAH +990 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 107.5 – 125.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1277 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −6 | +21 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +349 Elo | PHX 88.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 88.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 88.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 90.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 112.426th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.3 | Points allowed | 111.26th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.8 | Margin | +1.216th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 113.117th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.6 | Defense rating | 111.810th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.8 | Pace | 98.926th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–28 | Road vs home | 23–1513th of 30 |
| 8th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15122nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301277 | Elo rating | 152315th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–36 | 44–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 21–13 |
| Underdog | 33–33 | 23–16 |
| Overs–unders | 44–30 | 31–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–9 PHX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Oct 31UTAH 96 @ PHX 118Picked PHX 58%Hit
- Oct 27PHX 134 @ UTAH 138Picked UTAH 53%Hit
- Feb 7UTAH 127 @ PHX 135Picked PHX 71%Hit
- Jan 11UTAH 106 @ PHX 114Picked PHX 83%Hit
- Dec 13PHX 134 @ UTAH 126Picked PHX 70%Hit
- Nov 12PHX 120 @ UTAH 112Picked PHX 64%Hit
- Feb 8UTAH 115 @ PHX 129Picked UTAH 53%Miss
- Nov 19PHX 140 @ UTAH 137Picked PHX 53%Hit