Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Marvin Bagley IIIPoints26
- Brandon WilliamsAssists5
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds9
Trail Blazers- Jrue HolidayPoints23
- Deni AvdijaAssists6
- Donovan ClinganRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–93
- Q48.7P.J. Washington defensive rebound100–93
- Q411.7Scoot Henderson misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot100–93
- Q415.9Brandon Williams makes free throw 2 of 2100–93
- Q415.9Brandon Williams makes free throw 1 of 299–93
- Q415.9Toumani Camara personal take foul98–93
- Q416.8Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 298–93
- Q416.8Trail Blazers offensive team rebound98–92
- Q416.8Deni Avdija misses free throw 1 of 298–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:17Scoot Henderson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 85 – 81 POR · POR 24% → 39% +15POR 24% → 39%+15 pts
- Q43:07Deni Avdija makes 2-foot two point shot (Jrue Holiday assists)DAL 92 – 89 POR · POR 21% → 35% +14POR 21% → 35%+14 pts
- Q42:25Jrue Holiday makes 22-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)DAL 92 – 92 POR · POR 31% → 57% +27POR 31% → 57%+27 pts
- Q42:04Marvin Bagley III makes layup (Brandon Williams assists)DAL 94 – 92 POR · DAL 43% → 63% +20DAL 43% → 63%+20 pts
- Q444.1Marvin Bagley III makes dunk (Brandon Williams assists)DAL 96 – 92 POR · DAL 77% → 94% +17DAL 77% → 94%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- POR -10.5
- ML DAL +380 / POR -500
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -7
- POR 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- POR: Elo 75.7%, market 80.0%
- Fair odds
- POR -400
- DAL +400 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 115.0 – 125.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1363 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +46 | DAL: Missing Khris Middleton −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −33 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +198 Elo | POR 75.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 80.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 80.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 80.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.0 | Points scored | 115.516th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 116.720th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.3 | Margin | −1.220th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 111.622nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 112.716th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.3 | Pace | 103.28th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–26 | Road vs home | 20–1617th of 30 |
| 13th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 26th of 301363 | Elo rating | 147220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−7 Elo- Khris Middleton illness−2 Elo
Trail Blazers
+46 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles rehab−33 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–41 | 39–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–14 | 17–15 |
| Underdog | 24–27 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders | 33–40 | 41–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 8–2 POR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Dec 29DAL 122 @ POR 125Picked POR 55%Hit
- Nov 16POR 133 @ DAL 138Picked POR 58%Miss
- Jan 9POR 111 @ DAL 117Picked DAL 72%Hit
- Dec 28DAL 122 @ POR 126Picked DAL 58%Miss
- Dec 23POR 108 @ DAL 132Picked DAL 86%Hit
- Dec 1DAL 137 @ POR 131Picked DAL 64%Hit
- Jan 5POR 103 @ DAL 139Picked DAL 64%Hit
- Jan 3POR 97 @ DAL 126Picked DAL 66%Hit