Milwaukee Bucks at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Ryan RollinsPoints36
- AJ GreenAssists5
- Taurean PrinceRebounds6
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints23
- Jrue HolidayAssists8
- Donovan ClinganRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–130
- Q48.9shot clock turnover99–130
- Q431.3Matisse Thybulle defensive rebound99–130
- Q435.1Cormac Ryan misses 26-foot three point jumper99–130
- Q445.0Andre Jackson Jr. vs. Caleb Love (Pete Nance gains possession)99–130
- Q445.0Blake Wesley makes technical free throw99–130
- Q445.0Gary Trent Jr. technical foul99–129
- Q454.4Blake Wesley makes driving layup99–129
- Q41:11Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound99–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:36Jrue Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)MIL 0 – 3 POR · POR 88% → 90% +3POR 88% → 90%+3 pts
- Q18:59Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)MIL 7 – 13 POR · POR 90% → 93% +3POR 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q17:10Ousmane Dieng makes 25-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)MIL 12 – 14 POR · MIL 9% → 11% +3MIL 9% → 11%+3 pts
- Q16:58Toumani Camara makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)MIL 12 – 17 POR · POR 89% → 91% +3POR 89% → 91%+3 pts
- Q12:45Matisse Thybulle makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)MIL 24 – 33 POR · POR 92% → 94% +2POR 92% → 94%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- POR -15.5
- ML MIL +675 / POR -1050
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -10
- POR 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- POR: Elo 83.0%, market 87.6%
- Fair odds
- POR -708
- MIL +708 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 105.5 – 121.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1388 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −121 | +41 | MIL: Missing Myles Turner −14 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −32 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +275 Elo | POR 83.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 85.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 84.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 87.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.8 | Points scored | 115.317th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 117.021st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.6 | Margin | −1.620th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 111.323rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 112.916th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.2 | Pace | 103.38th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–23 | Road vs home | 19–1618th of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301388 | Elo rating | 146620th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−121 Elo- Myles Turner right calf−14 Elo
Trail Blazers
+41 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles rehab−32 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–40 | 38–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 16–15 |
| Underdog | 22–23 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders | 31–40 | 40–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 1–4 POR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.