Milwaukee Bucks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Gary Trent Jr.Points20
- Ryan RollinsAssists7
- Pete NanceRebounds6
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints28
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–129
- Q40.1Bucks offensive team rebound96–129
- Q41.2Gary Trent Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper96–129
- Q417.9Gary Trent Jr. defensive rebound96–129
- Q419.9Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 22-foot jumper96–129
- Q426.6Bucks delay of game violation96–129
- Q426.6Thanasis Antetokounmpo kicked ball violation96–129
- Q446.5Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Thanasis Antetokounmpo assists)96–129
- Q41:01Cam Christie makes 4-foot reverse layup (TyTy Washington Jr. assists)93–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:48Kobe Sanders makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)MIL 17 – 21 LAC · LAC 85% → 89% +4LAC 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q12:04Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)MIL 20 – 23 LAC · MIL 9% → 13% +3MIL 9% → 13%+3 pts
- Q133.6Kris Dunn makes 22-foot running jump shot (Darius Garland assists)MIL 22 – 28 LAC · LAC 87% → 91% +3LAC 87% → 91%+3 pts
- Q211:23Kobe Sanders makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Miller assists)MIL 26 – 31 LAC · LAC 86% → 89% +4LAC 86% → 89%+4 pts
- Q210:43Darius Garland makes 27-foot three pointerMIL 28 – 34 LAC · LAC 87% → 90% +4LAC 87% → 90%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -13.5
- ML MIL +600 / LAC -900
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -11
- LAC 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- LAC: Elo 85.3%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -630
- MIL +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 104.0 – 117.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −83 | +16 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +306 Elo | LAC 85.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 79.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 80.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 113.524th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 113.010th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.2 | Margin | +0.517th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 114.912th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.6 | Defense rating | 114.419th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.2 | Pace | 98.228th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–22 | Road vs home | 19–1515th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301394 | Elo rating | 156411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–39 | 37–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 15–21 |
| Underdog | 22–22 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 30–40 | 37–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–1 LAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.