New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Jeremiah FearsPoints21
- Derik QueenAssists7
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Jrue HolidayPoints27
- Jrue HolidayAssists9
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–118
- Q420.7Jeremiah Fears bad pass
turnover (Jrue Holiday steals)106–118
- Q422.3shot clock turnover106–118
- Q444.7Deni Avdija defensive rebound106–118
- Q446.5Zion Williamson misses driving layup106–118
- Q455.0Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2106–118
- Q455.0Jeremiah Fears enters the game for Herbert Jones106–117
- Q455.0Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2106–117
- Q455.0Herbert Jones personal foul106–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:14Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot running jump shot (Scoot Henderson assists)NO 67 – 63 POR · POR 42% → 51% +9POR 42% → 51%+9 pts
- Q39:32Herbert Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 70 – 67 POR · NO 38% → 47% +9NO 38% → 47%+9 pts
- Q35:33Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot three pointer (Robert Williams III assists)NO 76 – 74 POR · POR 44% → 54% +10POR 44% → 54%+10 pts
- Q34:43Matisse Thybulle makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)NO 76 – 77 POR · POR 54% → 64% +10POR 54% → 64%+10 pts
- Q49:46Matisse Thybulle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)NO 87 – 93 POR · POR 71% → 82% +11POR 71% → 82%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- POR -5.5
- ML NO +200 / POR -245
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -5
- POR 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- POR: Elo 69.3%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- POR -213
- NO +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 115.0 – 120.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | +52 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −39 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +142 Elo | POR 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 71.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 115.315th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.5 | Points allowed | 116.017th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.4 | Margin | −0.720th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 111.522nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 112.113th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.0 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–38th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–28 | Road vs home | 21–1717th of 30 |
| 6th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301395 | Elo rating | 148019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+52 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles rehab−39 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–34 | 41–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–3 | 18–16 |
| Underdog | 30–31 | 23–20 |
| Overs–unders | 38–38 | 41–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 5–5 POR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Jan 2POR 122 @ NO 109Picked POR 59%Hit
- Dec 11POR 120 @ NO 143Picked POR 60%Miss
- Nov 12POR 125 @ NO 117Picked POR 75%Hit
- Jan 8POR 119 @ NO 100Picked NO 53%Miss
- Nov 4POR 118 @ NO 100Picked NO 50%Miss
- Oct 27NO 103 @ POR 125Picked NO 69%Miss
- Oct 25NO 105 @ POR 103Picked NO 70%Hit
- Apr 9NO 110 @ POR 100Picked NO 68%Hit