Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints36
- Alperen SengunAssists7
- Clint CapelaRebounds14
Pelicans- Dejounte MurrayPoints19
- Dejounte MurrayAssists6
- Saddiq BeyRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–102
- Q411.2Clint Capela defensive rebound134–102
- Q413.5Jeremiah Fears misses driving layup134–102
- Q422.8Clint Capela makes running dunk (Josh Okogie assists)134–102
- Q425.1Josh Okogie defensive rebound132–102
- Q431.4Micah Peavy misses 25-foot three point jumper132–102
- Q441.9Micah Peavy defensive rebound132–102
- Q445.5Isaiah Crawford misses 23-foot three point jumper132–102
- Q41:09Jeremiah Fears bad pass
turnover (Josh Okogie steals)132–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:47Herbert Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)HOU 18 – 23 NO · NO 37% → 44% +7NO 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q12:24Derik Queen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)HOU 20 – 26 NO · NO 40% → 47% +7NO 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q12:13Tari Eason makes 25-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)HOU 23 – 26 NO · HOU 53% → 60% +7HOU 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q11:33Aaron Holiday makes 22-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 26 – 26 NO · HOU 60% → 67% +7HOU 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q132.0Saddiq Bey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)HOU 28 – 29 NO · NO 29% → 36% +6NO 29% → 36%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -5.5
- ML HOU -250 / NO +205
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.4%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -218
- NO +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 116.0 – 110.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | +21 | HOU: Usual rotation · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +88 Elo | HOU 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 67.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.1 | Points scored | 115.317th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 119.325th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.9 | Margin | −4.122nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 112.220th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 116.124th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.0 | Pace | 102.011th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 3019–19 | Road vs home | 16–2223rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15084th of 30 |
| 12th of 301555 | Elo rating | 141121st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–43 | 42–33 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–39 | 12–3 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 30–30 |
| Overs–unders | 32–41 | 37–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 8–3 NO in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Mar 13NO 105 @ HOU 107Picked HOU 66%Hit
- Jan 18NO 110 @ HOU 119Picked HOU 86%Hit
- Dec 18HOU 128 @ NO 133Picked HOU 77%Miss
- Mar 8NO 117 @ HOU 146Picked HOU 71%Hit
- Mar 6HOU 109 @ NO 97Picked HOU 58%Hit
- Dec 26HOU 128 @ NO 111Picked HOU 71%Hit
- Dec 19NO 113 @ HOU 133Picked HOU 77%Hit
- Feb 22HOU 105 @ NO 127Picked NO 69%Hit