New Orleans Pelicans at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints21
- Jeremiah FearsAssists6
- Derik QueenRebounds11
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints30
- Daniss JenkinsAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–129
- Q419.2Isaac Jones defensive rebound108–129
- Q421.5Isaac Jones blocks Micah Peavy 's 4-foot driving layup108–129
- Q434.0Tolu Smith out of bounds lost ball turnover108–129
- Q446.5Chaz Lanier defensive rebound108–129
- Q450.2Karlo Matkovic misses 24-foot three point jumper108–129
- Q41:00Bobi Klintman makes 6-foot two point shot (Tolu Smith assists)108–129
- Q41:13Jeremiah Fears makes running layup108–127
- Q41:18Derik Queen defensive rebound106–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:17Chaz Lanier makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ronald Holland II assists)NO 28 – 26 DET · DET 53% → 60% +7DET 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q11:04Jordan Hawkins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)NO 31 – 26 DET · NO 40% → 47% +7NO 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q136.6Daniss Jenkins makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotNO 31 – 29 DET · DET 53% → 60% +7DET 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q411:28Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)NO 88 – 95 DET · DET 74% → 83% +9DET 74% → 83%+9 pts
- Q410:49Javonte Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)NO 88 – 98 DET · DET 83% → 90% +7DET 83% → 90%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML NO +185 / DET -225
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- DET: Elo 71.5%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -197
- NO +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 110.5 – 115.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1615 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +39 | +16 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +160 Elo | DET 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 68.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 117.58th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.2 | Points allowed | 109.83rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.7 | Margin | +7.72nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 115.110th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 107.52nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–26 | Road vs home | 27–93rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 148529th of 30 |
| 21st of 301428 | Elo rating | 16155th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–31 | 37–35 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–3 | 26–33 |
| Underdog | 30–28 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 36–37 | 32–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–3 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.