Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints32
- LeBron JamesAssists10
- Deandre AytonRebounds10
Pistons- Daniss JenkinsPoints30
- Daniss JenkinsAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–113
- Q40.1Lakers offensive team rebound110–113
- Q41.6Luka Doncic misses 33-foot three point shot110–113
- Q49.0Maxi Kleber enters the game for Jaxson Hayes110–113
- Q49.0Luke Kennard enters the game for Deandre Ayton110–113
- Q49.0Lakers Full timeout110–113
- Q49.0Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2110–113
- Q49.0Jaxson Hayes enters the game for Jake LaRavia110–112
- Q49.0Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson110–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:22Tobias Harris makes 6-foot two point shotLAL 105 – 107 DET · DET 49% → 67% +18DET 49% → 67%+18 pts
- Q434.6Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2LAL 108 – 108 DET · DET 31% → 50% +18DET 31% → 50%+18 pts
- Q434.6Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2LAL 108 – 109 DET · DET 50% → 68% +18DET 50% → 68%+18 pts
- Q429.7Austin Reaves makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 110 – 109 DET · LAL 31% → 70% +39LAL 31% → 70%+39 pts
- Q424.6Daniss Jenkins makes 12-foot step back jumpshotLAL 110 – 111 DET · DET 28% → 71% +43DET 28% → 71%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -1.5
- ML LAL -125 / DET +105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -0.5
- LAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 52.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAL -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 113.0 – 111.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1614 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +76 | +2 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +20 Elo | LAL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 117.48th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +7.82nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 115.010th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 107.32nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.0 | Pace | 101.614th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 4th of 3023–13 | Road vs home | 26–83rd of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148230th of 30 |
| 8th of 301597 | Elo rating | 16146th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–30 | 36–34 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–14 | 26–32 |
| Underdog | 13–16 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 37–34 | 31–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–3 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.