New Orleans Pelicans at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints22
- Dejounte MurrayAssists12
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds6
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints32
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–121
- Q41.7Josh Hart defensive rebound116–121
- Q45.1Dejounte Murray misses 27-foot three point jumper116–121
- Q413.6Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2116–121
- Q413.6Jordan Clarkson enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns116–120
- Q413.6Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2116–120
- Q413.6Trey Murphy III personal take foul116–119
- Q415.6Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Jordan Clarkson116–119
- Q415.6Knicks Full timeout116–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:12Trey Murphy III makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 86 – 83 NY · NO 35% → 46% +11NO 35% → 46%+11 pts
- Q32:50Trey Murphy III makes 30-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 89 – 85 NY · NO 39% → 50% +11NO 39% → 50%+11 pts
- Q327.2Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 92 – 91 NY · NO 29% → 41% +11NO 29% → 41%+11 pts
- Q44:28Saddiq Bey makes running layupNO 107 – 109 NY · NO 19% → 29% +11NO 19% → 29%+11 pts
- Q44:02Jalen Brunson makes 12-foot driving floating jump shotNO 107 – 111 NY · NY 71% → 82% +11NY 71% → 82%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -8.5
- ML NO +280 / NY -355
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -9
- NY 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- NY: Elo 80.4%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- NY -296
- NO +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 110.5 – 119.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1654 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +63 | +37 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +245 Elo | NY 80.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 77.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 77.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 117.310th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.2 | Points allowed | 110.45th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.7 | Margin | +6.95th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 117.43rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 110.55th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.1 | Pace | 99.424th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–25 | Road vs home | 26–94th of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148627th of 30 |
| 21st of 301431 | Elo rating | 16543rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–31 | 38–35 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–3 | 31–29 |
| Underdog | 29–28 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 35–37 | 36–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–3 NY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.