Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints27
- Jalen JohnsonAssists12
- Dyson DanielsRebounds13
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints26
- Daniss JenkinsAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds14
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game130–129
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime130–129
- OT0.1Pistons offensive team rebound130–129
- OT0.7Jalen Duren misses 9-foot jumper130–129
- OT1.1Jalen Duren offensive rebound130–129
- OT2.9Tobias Harris misses 16-foot pullup jump shot130–129
- OT4.9Dyson Daniels personal foul130–129
- OT8.2Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson130–129
- OT8.2Pistons Full timeout130–129
- OT13.4Javonte Green defensive rebound130–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:42CJ McCollum makes 26-foot running jump shot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)ATL 113 – 112 DET · ATL 34% → 55% +22ATL 34% → 55%+22 pts
- Q42:15CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jock Landale assists)ATL 116 – 114 DET · ATL 39% → 67% +28ATL 39% → 67%+28 pts
- Q41:35CJ McCollum makes 19-foot step back jumpshotATL 118 – 116 DET · ATL 49% → 71% +22ATL 49% → 71%+22 pts
- Q49.5Tobias Harris makes 10-foot pullup jump shot (Duncan Robinson assists)ATL 121 – 121 DET · DET 4% → 50% +47DET 4% → 50%+47 pts
- OT41.2Daniss Jenkins makes 19-foot pullup jump shotATL 130 – 129 DET · DET 10% → 34% +24DET 10% → 34%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML ATL +124 / DET -148
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2.5
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- DET: Elo 59.5%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -134
- ATL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 113.5 – 116.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1620 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +8 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +67 Elo | DET 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 117.310th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +7.82nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 115.110th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 107.42nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.6 | Pace | 101.514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 11th of 3019–16 | Road vs home | 27–83rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 148329th of 30 |
| 13th of 301552 | Elo rating | 16206th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–33 | 37–34 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–18 | 26–32 |
| Underdog | 20–15 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 36–36 | 31–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–6 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Dec 12ATL 115 @ DET 142Picked DET 71%Hit
- Dec 1ATL 98 @ DET 99Picked DET 77%Hit
- Nov 18DET 120 @ ATL 112Picked DET 52%Hit
- Feb 23DET 148 @ ATL 143Picked DET 54%Hit
- Feb 3ATL 132 @ DET 130Picked DET 63%Miss
- Jan 22DET 114 @ ATL 104Picked ATL 60%Miss
- Nov 8ATL 121 @ DET 122Picked DET 55%Hit
- Apr 3DET 113 @ ATL 121Picked ATL 75%Hit