New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints22
- Jordan PooleAssists6
- Derik QueenRebounds8
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints23
- Scottie BarnesAssists12
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–119
- Q422.7Micah Peavy makes tip shot106–119
- Q422.7Micah Peavy offensive rebound104–119
- Q423.8Micah Peavy misses 3-foot floating jump shot104–119
- Q426.4Gradey Dick lost ball turnover (Micah Peavy steals)104–119
- Q428.6Jeremiah Fears makes 27-foot three pointer104–119
- Q440.6Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound101–119
- Q444.4Gradey Dick misses 26-foot three point jumper101–119
- Q445.8Alijah Martin offensive rebound101–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:00Saddiq Bey makes 28-foot three point jumper (Yves Missi assists)NO 5 – 6 TOR · NO 21% → 25% +5NO 21% → 25%+5 pts
- Q18:33Ja'Kobe Walter makes 24-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)NO 7 – 12 TOR · TOR 76% → 81% +5TOR 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q13:06Jordan Poole makes 31-foot turnaround jump shot (Zion Williamson assists)NO 17 – 23 TOR · NO 14% → 18% +4NO 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q11:08Jordan Hawkins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Saddiq Bey assists)NO 25 – 27 TOR · NO 20% → 25% +5NO 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q210:25Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)NO 27 – 36 TOR · TOR 82% → 86% +5TOR 82% → 86%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -8.5
- ML NO +260 / TOR -325
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -3.5
- TOR 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 63.9%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -275
- NO +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 110.5 – 119.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +11 | +1 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | TOR crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +99 Elo | TOR 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 67.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 113.923rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 112.49th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.9 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 113.117th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 111.59th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.0 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–27 | Road vs home | 19–1619th of 30 |
| 6th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150216th of 30 |
| 21st of 301420 | Elo rating | 148819th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–32 | 37–35 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–3 | 20–22 |
| Underdog | 30–29 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders | 37–37 | 28–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–2 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.