Toronto Raptors at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints18
- Scottie BarnesAssists12
- Scottie BarnesRebounds8
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints27
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Derrick Jones Jr.Rebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–119
- Q415.7shot clock turnover94–119
- Q439.8Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 2-foot running dunk (Jonathan Mogbo assists)94–119
- Q447.3Garrett Temple defensive rebound92–119
- Q447.3Sean Pedulla misses 15-foot pullup jump shot92–119
- Q457.2Cam Christie defensive rebound92–119
- Q458.9Garrett Temple misses 25-foot running jump shot92–119
- Q41:02Jamison Battle defensive rebound92–119
- Q41:03Bennedict Mathurin misses 6-foot two point shot92–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:16Brook Lopez makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)TOR 2 – 5 LAC · LAC 61% → 67% +6LAC 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q17:30Darius Garland makes 25-foot three pointer (Kawhi Leonard assists)TOR 8 – 13 LAC · LAC 65% → 71% +6LAC 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q16:31Jamal Shead makes 24-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 11 – 13 LAC · TOR 29% → 35% +6TOR 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q15:26Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)TOR 13 – 18 LAC · LAC 65% → 71% +6LAC 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q14:19Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 16 – 21 LAC · TOR 23% → 29% +6TOR 23% → 29%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -3.5
- ML TOR +150 / LAC -180
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4.5
- LAC 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 66.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAC -161
- TOR +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 111.5 – 115.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +24 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +122 Elo | LAC 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 59.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 113.824th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 112.810th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +1.016th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 115.29th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 114.118th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 98.228th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 8th of 3021–15 | Road vs home | 20–1514th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Elo rating | 156911th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–34 | 38–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–22 | 16–21 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 28–43 | 38–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–4 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.