Portland Trail Blazers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jrue HolidayPoints30
- Deni AvdijaAssists8
- Deni AvdijaRebounds11
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints23
- Darius GarlandAssists4
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–104
- Q42.6Kobe Sanders steps out of bounds turnover114–104
- Q49.4shot clock turnover114–104
- Q433.4Kobe Sanders makes 3-foot driving dunk (TyTy Washington Jr. assists)114–104
- Q445.3Caleb Love makes driving layup114–102
- Q41:06Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Scoot Henderson112–102
- Q41:06Blake Wesley enters the game for Donovan Clingan112–102
- Q41:06Caleb Love enters the game for Toumani Camara112–102
- Q41:06Kobe Sanders steps out of bounds turnover112–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q128.9Jrue Holiday makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 34 – 29 LAC · POR 43% → 50% +7POR 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q28:15Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 43 – 37 LAC · POR 46% → 54% +8POR 46% → 54%+8 pts
- Q27:09Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 48 – 37 LAC · POR 59% → 67% +7POR 59% → 67%+7 pts
- Q36:45Brook Lopez makes 25-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)POR 71 – 62 LAC · LAC 22% → 30% +8LAC 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q35:05Scoot Henderson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 76 – 64 LAC · POR 72% → 80% +8POR 72% → 80%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -4.5
- ML POR +164 / LAC -198
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5
- LAC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- LAC: Elo 69.4%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- LAC -175
- POR +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 110.5 – 115.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | +23 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −40, Jerami Grant −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +142 Elo | LAC 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 60.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 114.022nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 112.510th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.516th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 115.49th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 113.918th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.2 | Pace | 98.228th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 21–1515th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 30 |
| 20th of 301464 | Elo rating | 158411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+38 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−40 Elo
- Jerami Grant right calf strain−1 Elo
Clippers
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–36 | 39–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–16 | 17–23 |
| Underdog | 22–20 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 41–35 | 39–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–8 LAC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Dec 26LAC 119 @ POR 103Picked LAC 54%Hit
- Oct 26POR 107 @ LAC 114Picked LAC 73%Hit
- Jan 16LAC 118 @ POR 89Picked LAC 72%Hit
- Dec 3POR 105 @ LAC 127Picked LAC 76%Hit
- Oct 30POR 106 @ LAC 105Picked LAC 75%Miss
- Mar 22LAC 125 @ POR 117Picked LAC 69%Hit
- Mar 20LAC 116 @ POR 103Picked LAC 67%Hit
- Dec 11POR 127 @ LAC 132Picked LAC 74%Hit