LA Clippers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Darius GarlandPoints30
- Darius GarlandAssists5
- Brook LopezRebounds9
Pacers- Aaron NesmithPoints26
- Andrew NembhardAssists10
- Obi ToppinRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–113
- Q40.1Pacers offensive team rebound114–113
- Q40.1Jay Huff misses free throw 2 of 2114–113
- Q40.1Pacers offensive team rebound114–113
- Q40.1Jay Huff misses free throw 1 of 2114–113
- Q40.1Brook Lopez loose ball foul114–113
- Q40.1Jay Huff enters the game for Quenton Jackson114–113
- Q40.1Pacers Full timeout114–113
- Q40.4Pascal Siakam defensive rebound114–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:01Darius Garland makes 26-foot running jump shot (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 104 – 105 IND · LAC 26% → 49% +23LAC 26% → 49%+23 pts
- Q42:37Obi Toppin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)LAC 104 – 108 IND · IND 52% → 77% +24IND 52% → 77%+24 pts
- Q41:28Aaron Nesmith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Obi Toppin assists)LAC 105 – 111 IND · IND 78% → 95% +17IND 78% → 95%+17 pts
- Q41:24Darius Garland makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 108 – 111 IND · LAC 4% → 21% +17LAC 4% → 21%+17 pts
- Q41.0Kawhi Leonard makes 7-foot pullup jump shot (Bennedict Mathurin assists)LAC 114 – 113 IND · LAC <1% → >99% +99LAC <1% → >99%+99 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -8.5
- ML LAC -380 / IND +300
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7.5
- LAC 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- LAC: Elo 77.6%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- LAC -317
- IND +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 122.0 – 113.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1325 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | −2 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | LAC crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +216 Elo | LAC 77.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 75.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 111.927th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 120.726th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −8.827th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 108.629th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 117.227th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.1 | Pace | 102.59th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–21 | Road vs home | 10–2629th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 30 |
| 10th of 301581 | Elo rating | 132527th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–34 | 33–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–21 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 30–33 |
| Overs–unders | 38–35 | 37–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–3 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.