Los Angeles Lakers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints43
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Jaxson HayesRebounds10
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints20
- Andrew NembhardAssists19
- Pascal SiakamRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game137–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter137–130
- Q40.0(00:00) [Lakers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)137–130
- Q40.4Obi Toppin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)137–130
- Q45.7Jake LaRavia makes dunk (LeBron James assists)137–127
- Q413.6Luka Doncic defensive rebound135–127
- Q416.3Andrew Nembhard misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot135–127
- Q420.5Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2135–127
- Q420.5Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2134–127
- Q420.5Ben Sheppard personal take foul133–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:56Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jaxson Hayes assists)LAL 6 – 0 IND · LAL 82% → 86% +4LAL 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q19:20Jay Huff makes 30-foot running jump shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)LAL 10 – 6 IND · IND 13% → 17% +4IND 13% → 17%+4 pts
- Q18:35Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 13 – 8 IND · LAL 80% → 84% +4LAL 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q18:24Andrew Nembhard makes 27-foot three pointerLAL 13 – 11 IND · IND 16% → 20% +4IND 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q16:47Jarace Walker makes 29-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)LAL 19 – 14 IND · IND 12% → 16% +4IND 12% → 16%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -8.5
- ML LAL -425 / IND +330
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -10.5
- LAL 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- LAL: Elo 84.5%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- LAL -348
- IND +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 125.0 – 116.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1327 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | −1 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +294 Elo | LAL 84.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 81.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 82.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 111.627th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 120.527th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −8.927th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 108.529th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 117.127th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.0 | Pace | 102.410th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 5th of 3023–14 | Road vs home | 10–2529th of 30 |
| 15th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 30 |
| 9th of 301591 | Elo rating | 132727th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–31 | 32–40 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–15 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 13–16 | 29–33 |
| Overs–unders | 37–35 | 36–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 5–1 IND in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.