LA Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Bennedict MathurinPoints28
- Darius GarlandAssists11
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds8
Bucks- Gary Trent Jr.Points36
- Taurean PrinceAssists8
- Taurean PrinceRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–113
- Q423.0Kris Dunn defensive rebound127–113
- Q425.4Andre Jackson Jr. misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot127–113
- Q432.1John Collins lost ball turnover (Taurean Prince steals)127–113
- Q434.0John Collins offensive rebound127–113
- Q436.1Jordan Miller misses 25-foot three point jumper127–113
- Q455.0Bucks delay of game violation127–113
- Q455.0Andre Jackson Jr. makes 8-foot two point shot127–113
- Q41:05Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2127–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:40Kawhi Leonard makes 22-foot running jump shot (Darius Garland assists)LAC 16 – 15 MIL · LAC 86% → 89% +3LAC 86% → 89%+3 pts
- Q15:22Taurean Prince makes 23-foot running jump shot (Gary Trent Jr. assists)LAC 16 – 18 MIL · MIL 11% → 15% +4MIL 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q14:22Kris Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)LAC 19 – 18 MIL · LAC 85% → 88% +4LAC 85% → 88%+4 pts
- Q12:37Andre Jackson Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)LAC 23 – 23 MIL · MIL 10% → 13% +3MIL 10% → 13%+3 pts
- Q25:45Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot running jump shot (Jordan Miller assists)LAC 40 – 34 MIL · LAC 88% → 92% +4LAC 88% → 92%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -17.5
- ML LAC -1350 / MIL +800
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -14.5
- LAC 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- LAC: Elo 91.0%, market 89.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -838
- MIL +838 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 118.5 – 101.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1380 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +28 | −167 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Missing Bobby Portis −31, Ryan Rollins −26, Myles Turner −21 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +402 Elo | LAC 91.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 89.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 89.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 89.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 110.429th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 116.720th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −6.325th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 110.825th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 117.127th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.2 | Pace | 99.225th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 17th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 16–2022nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 30 |
| 10th of 301582 | Elo rating | 138023rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−167 Elo- Bobby Portis sprained left wrist−31 Elo
- Ryan Rollins hip flexor injury−26 Elo
- Myles Turner right knee injury−21 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–35 | 31–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–22 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 22–25 |
| Overs–unders | 38–36 | 32–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–3 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.