Washington Wizards at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Will RileyPoints14
- Bub CarringtonAssists4
- Julian ReeseRebounds13
Trail Blazers- Toumani CamaraPoints23
- Scoot HendersonAssists7
- Toumani CamaraRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–123
- Q420.7Sidy Cissoko makes free throw 2 of 288–123
- Q420.7Trail Blazers offensive team rebound88–122
- Q420.7Sidy Cissoko misses free throw 1 of 288–122
- Q420.7Sharife Cooper personal foul88–122
- Q433.1Double technical foul: Julian Reese and Yang Hansen88–122
- Q433.1Jamir Watkins makes free throw 2 of 288–122
- Q433.1Jamir Watkins makes free throw 1 of 287–122
- Q433.1Yang Hansen shooting foul86–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:04Bub Carrington makes 28-foot three point jumper (Julian Reese assists)WSH 34 – 34 POR · WSH 11% → 15% +4WSH 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q25:52Scoot Henderson makes 25-foot three pointerWSH 34 – 37 POR · POR 85% → 89% +4POR 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q24:43Tristan Vukcevic makes 25-foot running jump shot (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 39 – 39 POR · WSH 11% → 15% +4WSH 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q23:55Kris Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)WSH 41 – 44 POR · POR 84% → 89% +4POR 84% → 89%+4 pts
- Q23:27Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Scoot Henderson assists)WSH 43 – 48 POR · POR 87% → 91% +4POR 87% → 91%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- POR -16.5
- ML WSH +950 / POR -1650
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -9
- POR 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- POR: Elo 81.6%, market 90.8%
- Fair odds
- POR -990
- WSH +990 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 109.5 – 126.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1279 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | +45 | WSH: Missing Alex Sarr −2 · POR: Missing Shaedon Sharpe −6, Jerami Grant −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +258 Elo | POR 81.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 88.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 87.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 90.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 115.217th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.0 | Points allowed | 116.519th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.0 | Margin | −1.320th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 111.322nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.6 | Defense rating | 112.515th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 103.28th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–30 | Road vs home | 20–1719th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 29th of 301279 | Elo rating | 145720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
0 Elo- Alex Sarr left toe−2 Elo
Trail Blazers
+45 Elo- Shaedon Sharpe left fibula stress reaction−6 Elo
- Jerami Grant right calf strain−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–41 | 39–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 17–16 |
| Underdog | 30–38 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders | 42–31 | 41–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–3 POR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.