San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints34
- Stephon CastleAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds18
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints40
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds8
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game134–136
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime134–136
- OT0.0(00:00) [Spurs] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)134–136
- OT0.0Dylan Harper makes 35-foot three point shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)134–136
- OT3.4Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2131–136
- OT3.4Nuggets offensive team rebound131–135
- OT3.4Nikola Jokic misses free throw 1 of 2131–135
- OT3.4Julian Champagnie personal take foul131–135
- OT4.1Dylan Harper enters the game for Stephon Castle131–135
- OT4.1Stephon Castle personal take foul131–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:39Jamal Murray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)SA 115 – 116 DEN · DEN 34% → 57% +22DEN 34% → 57%+22 pts
- Q46.2Aaron Gordon makes 1-foot dunk (Nikola Jokic assists)SA 124 – 124 DEN · DEN 1% → 50% +49DEN 1% → 50%+49 pts
- OT4:04Julian Champagnie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 127 – 126 DEN · SA 37% → 58% +21SA 37% → 58%+21 pts
- OT2:18Cameron Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)SA 127 – 131 DEN · DEN 59% → 82% +24DEN 59% → 82%+24 pts
- OT1:00Nikola Jokic makes 11-foot step back jumpshotSA 129 – 133 DEN · DEN 76% → 92% +16DEN 76% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SA -1.5
- ML SA -125 / DEN +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1
- SA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- SA: Elo 54.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -114
- DEN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 123.0 – 121.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1702 | 1615 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +73 | +84 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +28 Elo | SA 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 50.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.5 | Points scored | 121.41st of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 116.620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.2 | Margin | +4.88th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 119.81st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 115.121st of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–11 | Road vs home | 24–138th of 30 |
| 16th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 148929th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301702 | Elo rating | 16156th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+84 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 45–33 | 41–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–27 | 25–29 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 33–45 | 46–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 4–5 DEN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Mar 12DEN 136 @ SA 131Picked SA 58%Miss
- Nov 28SA 139 @ DEN 136Picked DEN 71%Miss
- Apr 2SA 113 @ DEN 106Picked DEN 54%Miss
- Jan 4DEN 122 @ SA 111Picked DEN 57%Hit
- Jan 3SA 113 @ DEN 110Picked DEN 67%Miss
- Apr 12DEN 120 @ SA 121Picked DEN 64%Miss
- Apr 2SA 105 @ DEN 110Picked DEN 74%Hit
- Mar 15DEN 117 @ SA 106Picked DEN 70%Hit