San Antonio Spurs at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints22
- De'Aaron FoxAssists5
- Devin VassellRebounds10
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints24
- Kawhi LeonardAssists5
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–99
- Q46.7Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound118–99
- Q47.6Bismack Biyombo blocks Kobe Sanders's tip shot118–99
- Q48.6Kobe Sanders offensive rebound118–99
- Q49.6Cam Christie misses layup118–99
- Q416.5shot clock turnover118–99
- Q440.6Kobe Sanders makes free throw 1 of 1118–99
- Q440.6Bismack Biyombo shooting foul118–98
- Q440.6Kobe Sanders makes driving layup118–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:30Stephon Castle makes 28-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)SA 10 – 6 LAC · SA 46% → 52% +6SA 46% → 52%+6 pts
- Q14:34Kawhi Leonard makes 22-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)SA 18 – 19 LAC · LAC 51% → 58% +7LAC 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q11:22De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Julian Champagnie assists)SA 29 – 23 LAC · SA 51% → 58% +7SA 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q10.4Harrison Barnes makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 33 – 25 LAC · SA 56% → 63% +7SA 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q410:24Stephon Castle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 92 – 82 LAC · SA 76% → 85% +9SA 76% → 85%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML SA +120 / LAC -142
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- LAC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- LAC: Elo 49.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -129
- SA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 114.5 – 117.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1686 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −11 | +30 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +1 Elo | SA 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 52.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.5 | Points scored | 113.923rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 112.510th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.1 | Margin | +1.316th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 115.310th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 114.018th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.8 | Pace | 98.228th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3028–11 | Road vs home | 21–1615th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149325th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301686 | Elo rating | 156812th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 44–33 | 39–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–27 | 17–24 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 33–44 | 39–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 3–6 LAC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 9.
- Mar 16SA 119 @ LAC 115Picked SA 74%Hit
- Mar 6LAC 112 @ SA 116Picked SA 71%Hit
- Apr 8SA 117 @ LAC 122Picked LAC 84%Hit
- Jan 29LAC 128 @ SA 116Picked LAC 61%Hit
- Dec 31LAC 86 @ SA 122Picked SA 59%Hit
- Nov 4SA 104 @ LAC 113Picked LAC 61%Hit
- Nov 22LAC 109 @ SA 102Picked LAC 63%Hit
- Nov 20LAC 124 @ SA 99Picked LAC 55%Hit