Philadelphia 76ers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints34
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Joel EmbiidRebounds12
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints19
- Stephon CastleAssists13
- Stephon CastleRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–115
- Q40.0(00:00) [76ers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)102–115
- Q419.0shot clock turnover102–115
- Q441.3Luke Kornet defensive rebound102–115
- Q443.4Tyrese Maxey misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot102–115
- Q452.1Stephon Castle makes two point shot102–115
- Q455.0Joel Embiid lost ball turnover (Stephon Castle steals)102–113
- Q458.7Dominick Barlow offensive rebound102–113
- Q41:01VJ Edgecombe misses two point shot102–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:58Paul George makes 24-foot three pointer (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 62 – 62 SA · PHI 24% → 31% +8PHI 24% → 31%+8 pts
- Q310:07Joel Embiid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)PHI 65 – 64 SA · PHI 27% → 35% +8PHI 27% → 35%+8 pts
- Q39:48Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)PHI 65 – 67 SA · SA 65% → 73% +8SA 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q31:15VJ Edgecombe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 83 – 85 SA · PHI 19% → 29% +9PHI 19% → 29%+9 pts
- Q31.9Dylan Harper makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)PHI 85 – 92 SA · SA 78% → 86% +8SA 78% → 86%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- SA -8.5
- ML PHI +295 / SA -375
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -6.5
- SA 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- SA: Elo 73.9%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- SA -312
- PHI +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 114.5 – 123.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1697 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +90 | +78 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +181 Elo | SA 73.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 74.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 74.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 111.68th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +8.12nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 117.24th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 109.33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.813th of 30 |
| 13th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 10th of 3021–17 | Road vs home | 29–72nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 14th of 301528 | Elo rating | 16972nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+90 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–35 | 45–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–16 | 31–28 |
| Underdog | 17–19 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 40–38 | 34–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–2 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.