Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Tobias HarrisPoints19
- Daniss JenkinsAssists14
- Jalen DurenRebounds7
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints23
- Paul GeorgeAssists4
- VJ EdgecombeRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–93
- Q40.2shot clock turnover116–93
- Q422.2Paul Reed defensive rebound116–93
- Q424.8Justin Edwards misses driving floating jump shot116–93
- Q431.1Jabari Walker defensive rebound116–93
- Q434.7Chaz Lanier misses 24-foot running jump shot116–93
- Q439.4Trendon Watford lost ball turnover (Ronald Holland II steals)116–93
- Q452.6Trendon Watford defensive rebound116–93
- Q455.2Marcus Sasser misses 16-foot step back jumpshot116–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:14Ronald Holland II makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)DET 52 – 47 PHI · DET 63% → 70% +7DET 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q26:11VJ Edgecombe makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Cameron Payne assists)DET 52 – 52 PHI · PHI 34% → 42% +7PHI 34% → 42%+7 pts
- Q24:07Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)DET 56 – 56 PHI · PHI 34% → 42% +8PHI 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q22:56Duncan Robinson makes 27-foot three pointer (Jalen Duren assists)DET 63 – 56 PHI · DET 68% → 75% +7DET 68% → 75%+7 pts
- Q21:42Daniss Jenkins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)DET 66 – 58 PHI · DET 71% → 78% +7DET 71% → 78%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML DET -170 / PHI +142
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4
- DET 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- DET: Elo 64.8%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -152
- PHI +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 114.5 – 111.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1645 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +21 | +24 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +106 Elo | DET 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 64.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 116.511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 116.519th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.9 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 113.316th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.3 | Defense rating | 113.317th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.714th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–310th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3025–12 | Road vs home | 22–1715th of 30 |
| 29th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301645 | Elo rating | 154014th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–36 | 43–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–34 | 26–16 |
| Underdog | 12–2 | 17–18 |
| Overs–unders | 36–41 | 40–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–5 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Mar 12PHI 109 @ DET 131Picked DET 88%Hit
- Nov 14PHI 105 @ DET 114Picked DET 52%Hit
- Nov 9DET 111 @ PHI 108Picked DET 64%Hit
- Feb 7PHI 112 @ DET 125Picked PHI 67%Miss
- Nov 30PHI 111 @ DET 96Picked PHI 53%Hit
- Oct 30DET 105 @ PHI 95Picked PHI 62%Miss
- Apr 9DET 102 @ PHI 120Picked PHI 82%Hit
- Dec 15DET 92 @ PHI 124Picked PHI 87%Hit