Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints26
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds11
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints30
- Bam AdebayoAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–119
- Q412.6Pelle Larsson defensive rebound109–119
- Q415.3Joel Embiid misses 23-foot three point jumper109–119
- Q418.576ers offensive team rebound109–119
- Q420.8Tyrese Maxey misses 23-foot fade away jump shot109–119
- Q426.9Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2109–119
- Q426.9Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2109–118
- Q426.9Tyrese Maxey personal take foul109–117
- Q428.8(00:28.8) [76ers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)109–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:33Tyrese Maxey makes 32-foot three pointerPHI 104 – 101 MIA · PHI 52% → 70% +17PHI 52% → 70%+17 pts
- Q43:35Andrew Wiggins makes two point shotPHI 104 – 103 MIA · MIA 27% → 41% +14MIA 27% → 41%+14 pts
- Q43:22Joel Embiid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 107 – 103 MIA · PHI 59% → 80% +20PHI 59% → 80%+20 pts
- Q42:36Tyler Herro makes 26-foot running jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)PHI 107 – 108 MIA · MIA 31% → 57% +26MIA 31% → 57%+26 pts
- Q42:08Tyler Herro makes 28-foot running jump shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)PHI 107 – 111 MIA · MIA 58% → 83% +25MIA 58% → 83%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -2.5
- ML PHI -142 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4.5
- PHI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 66.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -129
- MIA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 122.5 – 120.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +82 | +18 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +122 Elo | PHI 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 120.32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 117.922nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +2.312th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 113.714th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 111.49th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.6 | Pace | 105.51st of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–16 | Road vs home | 23–1411th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 14th of 301544 | Elo rating | 149017th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–33 | 43–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–15 | 20–17 |
| Underdog | 17–18 | 23–15 |
| Overs–unders | 39–35 | 42–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–7 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Feb 26MIA 117 @ PHI 124Picked PHI 55%Hit
- Nov 23MIA 127 @ PHI 117Picked PHI 52%Miss
- Apr 7PHI 105 @ MIA 117Picked MIA 81%Hit
- Mar 29MIA 118 @ PHI 95Picked MIA 73%Hit
- Feb 5MIA 108 @ PHI 101Picked PHI 54%Miss
- Nov 18PHI 89 @ MIA 106Picked MIA 55%Hit
- Apr 4PHI 109 @ MIA 105Picked MIA 56%Miss
- Mar 18MIA 91 @ PHI 98Picked PHI 53%Hit