Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints29
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Paul GeorgeRebounds13
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints29
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Kon KnueppelRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–114
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound118–114
- Q40.0LaMelo Ball misses heave jump shot118–114
- Q41.5Paul George makes free throw 2 of 2118–114
- Q41.5Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Kon Knueppel117–114
- Q41.5Moussa Diabate enters the game for Sion James117–114
- Q41.576ers offensive team rebound117–114
- Q41.5Paul George misses free throw 1 of 2117–114
- Q41.5Grant Williams personal take foul117–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:27VJ Edgecombe makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 106 – 105 CHA · PHI 32% → 50% +18PHI 32% → 50%+18 pts
- Q44:04LaMelo Ball makes 24-foot three pointerPHI 108 – 108 CHA · CHA 35% → 56% +21CHA 35% → 56%+21 pts
- Q42:51Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)PHI 110 – 111 CHA · CHA 38% → 63% +25CHA 38% → 63%+25 pts
- Q41:24LaMelo Ball makes 27-foot three pointerPHI 112 – 114 CHA · CHA 41% → 76% +34CHA 41% → 76%+34 pts
- Q41:04Paul George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 116 – 114 CHA · PHI 34% → 73% +40PHI 34% → 73%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -6.5
- ML PHI +205 / CHA -250
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -4
- CHA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- CHA: Elo 65.4%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- CHA -218
- PHI +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 112.5 – 119.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1607 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +77 | +80 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +110 Elo | CHA 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 67.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 116.312th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 111.68th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +4.76th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 116.47th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 111.710th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.7 | Pace | 99.623rd of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 10th of 3019–16 | Road vs home | 19–1720th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 148529th of 30 |
| 14th of 301535 | Elo rating | 16077th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–33 | 46–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–15 | 19–10 |
| Underdog | 16–18 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders | 38–35 | 28–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–1 CHA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 10.
- Jan 26PHI 93 @ CHA 130Picked CHA 53%Hit
- Oct 25CHA 121 @ PHI 125Picked PHI 63%Hit
- Dec 20CHA 98 @ PHI 108Picked PHI 84%Hit
- Dec 16PHI 121 @ CHA 108Picked PHI 55%Hit
- Dec 3PHI 110 @ CHA 104Picked PHI 62%Hit
- Nov 10CHA 105 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 63%Hit
- Mar 16CHA 98 @ PHI 109Picked PHI 61%Hit
- Mar 1CHA 114 @ PHI 121Picked PHI 67%Hit