Sacramento Kings at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Daeqwon PlowdenPoints22
- Malik MonkAssists14
- Dylan CardwellRebounds11
Hornets- Coby WhitePoints27
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Moussa DiabateRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–134
- Q411.4shot clock turnover90–134
- Q433.5Liam McNeeley defensive rebound90–134
- Q436.9Devin Carter misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot90–134
- Q445.4Devin Carter defensive rebound90–134
- Q447.9Ryan Kalkbrenner misses 22-foot three point jumper90–134
- Q41:03Liam McNeeley defensive rebound90–134
- Q41:05Doug McDermott misses 30-foot running jump shot90–134
- Q41:10Patrick Baldwin Jr. defensive rebound90–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:26LaMelo Ball makes 33-foot three pointer (Miles Bridges assists)SAC 6 – 7 CHA · CHA 89% → 92% +3CHA 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q19:23LaMelo Ball makes 24-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)SAC 6 – 12 CHA · CHA 93% → 95% +2CHA 93% → 95%+2 pts
- Q18:28Kon Knueppel makes 27-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)SAC 10 – 15 CHA · CHA 92% → 94% +2CHA 92% → 94%+2 pts
- Q14:36LaMelo Ball makes driving layupSAC 15 – 24 CHA · CHA 94% → 96% +2CHA 94% → 96%+2 pts
- Q211:15Maxime Raynaud makes 6-foot floating jump shot (Malik Monk assists)SAC 27 – 34 CHA · SAC 3% → 6% +2SAC 3% → 6%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -18.5
- ML SAC +1000 / CHA -1800
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -12.5
- CHA 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- CHA: Elo 87.8%, market 91.2%
- Fair odds
- CHA -1042
- SAC +1042 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 107.5 – 126.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1591 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | +65 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | SAC crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +343 Elo | CHA 87.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 86.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 86.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 91.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 116.112th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 112.18th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.0 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 116.08th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.7 | Defense rating | 112.012th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.723rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–28 | Road vs home | 17–1720th of 30 |
| 4th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 148528th of 30 |
| 25th of 301376 | Elo rating | 15918th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–43 | 44–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 17–10 |
| Underdog | 25–38 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders | 36–36 | 28–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–2 CHA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.