New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints26
- Jalen BrunsonAssists13
- Josh HartRebounds7
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints26
- Kon KnueppelAssists8
- Kon KnueppelRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–114
- Q411.2Kon Knueppel defensive rebound103–114
- Q413.5Josh Hart misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot103–114
- Q420.4LaMelo Ball makes free throw 2 of 2103–114
- Q420.4LaMelo Ball makes free throw 1 of 2103–113
- Q420.4Mitchell Robinson personal foul103–112
- Q426.9Josh Hart makes driving layup (OG Anunoby assists)103–112
- Q430.0OG Anunoby offensive rebound101–112
- Q432.5Jalen Brunson misses driving floating jump shot101–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:31OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 45 – 48 CHA · NY 31% → 39% +7NY 31% → 39%+7 pts
- Q22:58Kon Knueppel makes 27-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)NY 49 – 56 CHA · CHA 64% → 71% +7CHA 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q22:20OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 52 – 58 CHA · NY 24% → 31% +7NY 24% → 31%+7 pts
- Q21:54OG Anunoby makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 55 – 60 CHA · NY 26% → 33% +7NY 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q257.7Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)NY 55 – 63 CHA · CHA 67% → 74% +7CHA 67% → 74%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -2.5
- ML NY +110 / CHA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CHA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- CHA: Elo 50.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHA -119
- NY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 111.0 – 113.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1656 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | +69 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +6 Elo | CHA 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 50.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 116.412th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 111.88th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.8 | Margin | +4.66th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 116.38th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 111.710th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.3 | Pace | 99.723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–16 | Road vs home | 18–1720th of 30 |
| 28th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 148430th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301656 | Elo rating | 15978th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–36 | 45–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–30 | 18–10 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders | 37–37 | 28–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 8–1 CHA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.