Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints31
- Davion MitchellAssists8
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints30
- Andrew NembhardAssists10
- Pascal SiakamRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–135
- Q411.9Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound118–135
- Q414.0Bam Adebayo misses 24-foot three point jumper118–135
- Q422.2Pascal Siakam makes driving layup (Andrew Nembhard assists)118–135
- Q431.4Andrew Wiggins kicked ball violation118–133
- Q448.1Davion Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2118–133
- Q448.1Heat offensive team rebound117–133
- Q448.1Davion Mitchell misses free throw 1 of 2117–133
- Q448.1Jay Huff shooting foul117–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:20Kel'el Ware makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)MIA 97 – 96 IND · MIA 58% → 68% +10MIA 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q31:38Kobe Brown makes 25-foot three point jumper (Obi Toppin assists)MIA 102 – 103 IND · IND 29% → 40% +11IND 29% → 40%+11 pts
- Q328.2Kasparas Jakucionis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kel'el Ware assists)MIA 107 – 105 IND · MIA 59% → 71% +11MIA 59% → 71%+11 pts
- Q35.1Kobe Brown makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)MIA 107 – 108 IND · IND 29% → 41% +11IND 29% → 41%+11 pts
- Q48:48Ben Sheppard makes 22-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)MIA 111 – 113 IND · IND 34% → 48% +14IND 34% → 48%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -8.5
- ML MIA -355 / IND +280
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -6
- MIA 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 71.7%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- MIA -296
- IND +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 127.0 – 118.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 245.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1323 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +18 | MIA: Missing Norman Powell −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +161 Elo | MIA 71.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 73.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.3 | Points scored | 111.927th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 120.626th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.6 | Margin | −8.727th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 108.629th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 117.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.5 | Pace | 102.59th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 19th of 3016–21 | Road vs home | 10–2729th of 30 |
| 9th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15077th of 30 |
| 16th of 301514 | Elo rating | 132327th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+24 Elo- Norman Powell injury/illness−14 Elo
Pacers
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–31 | 34–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–16 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 31–33 |
| Overs–unders | 41–33 | 37–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–5 IND in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Jan 10MIA 99 @ IND 123Picked MIA 68%Miss
- Dec 27IND 116 @ MIA 142Picked MIA 70%Hit
- Feb 28IND 120 @ MIA 125Picked IND 57%Miss
- Jan 2IND 128 @ MIA 115Picked MIA 56%Miss
- Nov 17MIA 110 @ IND 119Picked IND 60%Hit
- Nov 15MIA 124 @ IND 111Picked IND 62%Miss
- Apr 7MIA 115 @ IND 117Picked IND 55%Hit
- Dec 2IND 144 @ MIA 129Picked MIA 61%Miss