Detroit Pistons at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Paul ReedPoints21
- Kevin HuerterAssists6
- Paul ReedRebounds10
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints47
- Alex CarusoAssists4
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds13
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game110–114
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime110–114
- OT1.5Alex Caruso defensive rebound110–114
- OT1.5Kevin Huerter misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot110–114
- OT5.4Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2110–114
- OT5.4Luguentz Dort enters the game for Jared McCain110–113
- OT5.4Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2110–113
- OT5.4Kevin Huerter personal foul110–112
- OT6.4Jared McCain enters the game for Luguentz Dort110–112
- OT6.4Thunder Full timeout110–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:59Kevin Huerter makes running dunkDET 99 – 96 OKC · DET 52% → 72% +19DET 52% → 72%+19 pts
- Q41:35Jaylin Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DET 99 – 99 OKC · OKC 25% → 57% +32OKC 25% → 57%+32 pts
- Q431.2Paul Reed makes free throw 2 of 2DET 101 – 101 OKC · DET 27% → 46% +19DET 27% → 46%+19 pts
- OT2:26Kevin Huerter makes 22-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)DET 104 – 105 OKC · DET 13% → 33% +20DET 13% → 33%+20 pts
- OT1:19Alex Caruso makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DET 104 – 108 OKC · OKC 68% → 92% +24OKC 68% → 92%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -11.5
- ML DET +470 / OKC -650
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5.5
- OKC 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 71.5%, market 83.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -494
- DET +494 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 103.0 – 114.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1637 | 1730 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −56 | +15 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +160 Elo | OKC 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 73.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 83.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 118.75th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Points allowed | 107.62nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.0 | Margin | +11.11st of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 116.56th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 105.61st of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.6 | Pace | 100.919th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3025–11 | Road vs home | 31–61st of 30 |
| 30th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 149423rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301637 | Elo rating | 17301st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–35 | 35–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–33 | 32–39 |
| Underdog | 11–2 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 33–41 | 38–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–3 OKC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.