New York Knicks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints32
- Jalen BrunsonAssists5
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds18
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Ajay MitchellAssists5
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–111
- Q417.7shot clock turnover100–111
- Q441.8Jalen Brunson makes driving layup100–111
- Q450.1Jalen Williams makes free throw 2 of 298–111
- Q450.1Jalen Williams makes free throw 1 of 298–110
- Q450.1Jordan Clarkson enters the game for Mikal Bridges98–109
- Q450.1Mikal Bridges personal foul98–109
- Q459.8Jalen Brunson makes 5-foot two point shot (Josh Hart assists)98–109
- Q41:10Chet Holmgren makes dunk (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)96–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:33Karl-Anthony Towns makes 4-foot jump bank shot (Jose Alvarado assists)NY 90 – 92 OKC · NY 21% → 30% +9NY 21% → 30%+9 pts
- Q46:20Alex Caruso makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)NY 91 – 95 OKC · OKC 65% → 79% +14OKC 65% → 79%+14 pts
- Q45:58Karl-Anthony Towns makes layup (OG Anunoby assists)NY 93 – 95 OKC · NY 20% → 30% +9NY 20% → 30%+9 pts
- Q44:47Jalen Brunson makes 2-foot two point shotNY 95 – 97 OKC · NY 19% → 29% +10NY 19% → 29%+10 pts
- Q44:33Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 14-foot pullup jump shotNY 95 – 99 OKC · OKC 71% → 81% +10OKC 71% → 81%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML NY +285 / OKC -360
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4.5
- OKC 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 68.2%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -301
- NY +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 108.0 – 115.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1645 | 1724 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | +44 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +132 Elo | OKC 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 70.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 118.85th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 107.72nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.6 | Margin | +11.11st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 116.56th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 105.61st of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.2 | Pace | 101.019th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 11th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 30–61st of 30 |
| 29th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 30 |
| 4th of 301645 | Elo rating | 17241st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–37 | 34–40 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–30 | 31–39 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 37–38 | 38–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 0–5 OKC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.