Detroit Pistons at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Tobias HarrisPoints18
- Jalen DurenAssists5
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Timberwolves- Donte DiVincenzoPoints22
- Mike ConleyAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–87
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–87
- Q417.3shot clock turnover109–87
- Q440.2Javonte Green defensive rebound109–87
- Q441.7Joan Beringer misses free throw 2 of 2109–87
- Q441.7Timberwolves offensive team rebound109–87
- Q441.7Joan Beringer misses free throw 1 of 2109–87
- Q441.7Tolu Smith shooting foul109–87
- Q450.7Chaz Lanier makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Marcus Sasser assists)109–87
- Q41:12Joan Beringer makes free throw 2 of 2107–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:59Kevin Huerter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paul Reed assists)DET 27 – 22 MIN · DET 58% → 65% +7DET 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q26:03Donte DiVincenzo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)DET 43 – 37 MIN · MIN 25% → 32% +7MIN 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q310:11Duncan Robinson makes 22-foot running jump shot (Tobias Harris assists)DET 54 – 45 MIN · DET 70% → 78% +7DET 70% → 78%+7 pts
- Q39:31Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Julius Randle assists)DET 56 – 48 MIN · MIN 18% → 24% +7MIN 18% → 24%+7 pts
- Q38:21Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)DET 58 – 51 MIN · MIN 19% → 26% +7MIN 19% → 26%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML DET -130 / MIN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2.5
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- DET: Elo 59.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 112.0 – 109.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1623 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +10 | −45 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +69 Elo | DET 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 118.36th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 114.411th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.8 | Margin | +3.810th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 114.812th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.5 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.6 | Pace | 102.410th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3024–11 | Road vs home | 25–138th of 30 |
| 30th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149324th of 30 |
| 5th of 301623 | Elo rating | 157311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–35 | 32–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–33 | 23–34 |
| Underdog | 11–2 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 33–40 | 33–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–3 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.