Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints27
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds7
Pistons- Daniss JenkinsPoints26
- Ausar ThompsonAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–113
- Q41.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound108–113
- Q41.6Naz Reid misses 26-foot three point jumper108–113
- Q43.8Javonte Green bad pass
turnover (Kyle Anderson steals)108–113
- Q43.8Ayo Dosunmu makes 3-foot two point shot108–113
- Q48.9Javonte Green makes free throw 2 of 2106–113
- Q48.9Javonte Green makes free throw 1 of 2106–112
- Q48.9Donte DiVincenzo personal take foul106–111
- Q48.9Javonte Green defensive rebound106–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:20Kevin Huerter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)MIN 67 – 69 DET · DET 55% → 65% +10DET 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q31:17Naz Reid makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 78 – 79 DET · MIN 28% → 38% +11MIN 28% → 38%+11 pts
- Q411:27Naz Reid makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 83 – 81 DET · MIN 39% → 51% +13MIN 39% → 51%+13 pts
- Q47:46Ausar Thompson makes 5-foot two point shot (Duncan Robinson assists)MIN 89 – 90 DET · DET 51% → 61% +10DET 51% → 61%+10 pts
- Q46:57Ronald Holland II makes driving dunk (Ausar Thompson assists)MIN 89 – 92 DET · DET 61% → 71% +10DET 61% → 71%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -5.5
- ML MIN +170 / DET -205
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -6.5
- DET 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.0 pts
- DET: Elo 74.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -181
- MIN +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 107.5 – 113.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1642 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −50 | +17 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +186 Elo | DET 74.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 67.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 117.58th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.8 | Margin | +7.93rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 115.111th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 107.32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 101.516th of 30 |
| 13th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 8th of 3021–15 | Road vs home | 29–93rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 148829th of 30 |
| 12th of 301570 | Elo rating | 16424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–42 | 41–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–34 | 29–33 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 12–2 |
| Overs–unders | 33–42 | 35–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–2 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.