Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints24
- Ayo DosunmuAssists12
- Ayo DosunmuRebounds15
Mavericks- Daniel GaffordPoints21
- Brandon WilliamsAssists7
- Daniel GaffordRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–94
- Q40.0(00:00) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)124–94
- Q410.1Jaylen Clark defensive rebound124–94
- Q413.2Ryan Nembhard misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot124–94
- Q422.0Jaylen Clark makes driving layup124–94
- Q422.0Jaylen Clark offensive rebound122–94
- Q425.4Mike Conley misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot122–94
- Q441.6Tyler Smith makes two point shot122–94
- Q442.8Tyler Smith offensive rebound122–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:35Max Christie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)MIN 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 25% → 31% +5DAL 25% → 31%+5 pts
- Q110:06Khris Middleton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)MIN 4 – 8 DAL · DAL 27% → 33% +6DAL 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q19:34Donte DiVincenzo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 7 – 8 DAL · MIN 67% → 72% +6MIN 67% → 72%+6 pts
- Q18:46Ayo Dosunmu makes 26-foot running jump shot (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 10 – 8 DAL · MIN 72% → 77% +5MIN 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q18:05Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 13 – 8 DAL · MIN 77% → 82% +5MIN 77% → 82%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -8.5
- ML MIN -355 / DAL +280
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5.5
- MIN 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 71.2%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -296
- DAL +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 122.5 – 114.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1378 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | +9 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Missing Marvin Bagley III −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | DAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +157 Elo | MIN 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 75.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 75.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 113.924th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 118.923rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.5 | Margin | −5.124th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 109.126th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 114.019th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.3 | Pace | 103.45th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 8th of 3020–15 | Road vs home | 14–2324th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 13th of 301559 | Elo rating | 137823rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+9 Elo- Marvin Bagley III left shoulder−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–42 | 33–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–34 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 25–27 |
| Overs–unders | 33–41 | 33–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 9–6 DAL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.
- Feb 20DAL 111 @ MIN 122Picked MIN 84%Hit
- Jan 28MIN 118 @ DAL 105Picked MIN 73%Hit
- Nov 17DAL 96 @ MIN 120Picked MIN 85%Hit
- Jan 22MIN 115 @ DAL 114Picked MIN 59%Hit
- Dec 25MIN 105 @ DAL 99Picked DAL 65%Miss
- Oct 29DAL 120 @ MIN 114Picked MIN 61%Miss
- May 30DAL 124 @ MIN 103PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Miss
- May 28MIN 105 @ DAL 100PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Miss