Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints24
- Jamal SheadAssists12
- Collin Murray-BoylesRebounds10
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints31
- Tobias HarrisAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–127
- Q419.4shot clock turnover116–127
- Q441.7Jalen Duren defensive rebound116–127
- Q442.9Sandro Mamukelashvili misses two point shot116–127
- Q449.7Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound116–127
- Q452.6Duncan Robinson misses 23-foot three point jumper116–127
- Q41:05Pistons defensive team rebound116–127
- Q41:06Caris LeVert blocks Markelle Fultz 's 4-foot driving layup116–127
- Q41:15A.J. Lawson defensive rebound116–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:01A.J. Lawson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 38 – 42 DET · TOR 26% → 33% +7TOR 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q24:11Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)TOR 41 – 45 DET · DET 59% → 67% +8DET 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q23:00Tobias Harris makes 23-foot running jump shot (Duncan Robinson assists)TOR 44 – 50 DET · DET 64% → 72% +7DET 64% → 72%+7 pts
- Q21:17Jamal Shead makes 22-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 49 – 55 DET · TOR 21% → 28% +7TOR 21% → 28%+7 pts
- Q20.5Daniss Jenkins makes 26-foot three pointerTOR 54 – 59 DET · DET 62% → 70% +8DET 62% → 70%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML TOR +130 / DET -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3
- DET 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- DET: Elo 61.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -140
- TOR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 108.0 – 111.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1634 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +23 | +11 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +77 Elo | DET 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.3 | Points scored | 117.48th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +7.93rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 114.911th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 107.22nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.3 | Pace | 101.516th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 9th of 3021–16 | Road vs home | 28–93rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 148829th of 30 |
| 16th of 301528 | Elo rating | 16345th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–35 | 40–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–22 | 28–33 |
| Underdog | 17–13 | 12–2 |
| Overs–unders | 28–46 | 34–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–7 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Mar 15DET 108 @ TOR 119Picked DET 58%Miss
- Feb 11DET 113 @ TOR 95Picked TOR 51%Miss
- Apr 4DET 117 @ TOR 105Picked DET 80%Hit
- Jan 11TOR 114 @ DET 123Picked DET 65%Hit
- Nov 25TOR 100 @ DET 102Picked DET 58%Hit
- Nov 15DET 99 @ TOR 95Picked DET 56%Hit
- Mar 13TOR 104 @ DET 113Picked DET 64%Hit
- Dec 30TOR 127 @ DET 129Picked TOR 60%Miss