Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Desmond BanePoints17
- Jalen SuggsAssists5
- Paolo BancheroRebounds5
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints24
- Scottie BarnesAssists15
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game87–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter87–139
- Q412.6shot clock turnover87–139
- Q435.0Alijah Martin defensive rebound87–139
- Q437.0Jase Richardson misses 13-foot pullup jump shot87–139
- Q448.1Magic defensive team rebound87–139
- Q450.4Alijah Martin misses 26-foot three point jumper87–139
- Q41:00Moritz Wagner kicked ball violation87–139
- Q41:02Alijah Martin offensive rebound87–139
- Q41:05Trayce Jackson-Davis misses layup87–139
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:01Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 7 – 2 TOR · ORL 52% → 58% +6ORL 52% → 58%+6 pts
- Q16:38Scottie Barnes makes 26-foot three pointer (Jakob Poeltl assists)ORL 15 – 11 TOR · TOR 37% → 44% +6TOR 37% → 44%+6 pts
- Q16:25Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 18 – 11 TOR · ORL 56% → 63% +6ORL 56% → 63%+6 pts
- Q16:11Scottie Barnes makes 26-foot three pointerORL 18 – 14 TOR · TOR 37% → 44% +6TOR 37% → 44%+6 pts
- Q14:04Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 29-foot running jump shot (Jamal Shead assists)ORL 20 – 23 TOR · TOR 52% → 59% +7TOR 52% → 59%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -1.5
- ML ORL +102 / TOR -122
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -0.5
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.1%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -111
- ORL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 112.5 – 114.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −8 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Missing Brandon Ingram −21, Collin Murray-Boyles −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +8 Elo | TOR 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 114.023rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 112.39th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.714th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 113.117th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 111.49th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 20–1617th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 16th of 301505 | Elo rating | 149617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−8 Elo- Brandon Ingram right heel−21 Elo
- Collin Murray-Boyles lower back injury−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–40 | 38–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–27 | 21–22 |
| Underdog | 15–13 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders | 40–33 | 28–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 5–4 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Jan 30TOR 120 @ ORL 130Picked ORL 56%Hit
- Dec 29ORL 106 @ TOR 107Picked ORL 53%Miss
- Mar 4TOR 114 @ ORL 113Picked ORL 67%Miss
- Mar 2TOR 104 @ ORL 102Picked ORL 70%Miss
- Jan 21ORL 93 @ TOR 109Picked ORL 51%Miss
- Jan 3ORL 106 @ TOR 97Picked ORL 53%Hit
- Mar 17TOR 96 @ ORL 111Picked ORL 79%Hit
- Mar 15ORL 113 @ TOR 103Picked ORL 71%Hit