Sacramento Kings at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints33
- DeMar DeRozanAssists11
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds9
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints30
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–121
- Q43.8Tristan da Silva defensive rebound117–121
- Q44.2Malik Monk misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot117–121
- Q413.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2117–121
- Q413.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2117–120
- Q413.1Malik Monk personal foul117–119
- Q420.6DeMar DeRozan makes 12-foot fade away jump shot117–119
- Q427.4Tristan da Silva kicked ball violation115–119
- Q427.4Jamal Cain enters the game for Jalen Suggs115–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:07Daeqwon Plowden makes 26-foot running jump shot (Devin Carter assists)SAC 93 – 93 ORL · SAC 18% → 27% +10SAC 18% → 27%+10 pts
- Q48:32Paolo Banchero makes driving layupSAC 95 – 97 ORL · ORL 70% → 78% +8ORL 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q450.4Daeqwon Plowden makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 115 – 116 ORL · SAC 4% → 29% +25SAC 4% → 29%+25 pts
- Q427.4Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)SAC 115 – 119 ORL · ORL 74% → 99% +24ORL 74% → 99%+24 pts
- Q420.6DeMar DeRozan makes 12-foot fade away jump shotSAC 117 – 119 ORL · SAC <1% → 9% +9SAC <1% → 9%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -15.5
- ML SAC +800 / ORL -1350
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -8
- ORL 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.2 pts
- ORL: Elo 78.1%, market 89.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -838
- SAC +838 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 107.5 – 123.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1371 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | +8 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +221 Elo | ORL 78.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 82.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 81.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 89.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.8 | Points scored | 115.715th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 114.813th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.4 | Margin | +0.917th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 113.017th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.9 | Defense rating | 112.213th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.4 | Pace | 101.416th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–29 | Road vs home | 21–1413th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 25th of 301371 | Elo rating | 150317th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–44 | 33–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 18–26 |
| Underdog | 25–39 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders | 36–37 | 39–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–3 ORL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.