Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Paul GeorgePoints39
- VJ EdgecombeAssists10
- Andre DrummondRebounds9
Wizards- Anthony GillPoints21
- Bub CarringtonAssists7
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game153–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter153–131
- Q41.3shot clock turnover153–131
- Q425.3Sharife Cooper makes free throw 2 of 2153–131
- Q425.3Sharife Cooper makes free throw 1 of 2153–130
- Q425.3Cameron Payne personal foul153–129
- Q429.9Jabari Walker lost ball turnover (Jaden Hardy steals)153–129
- Q435.4Jabari Walker defensive rebound153–129
- Q438.7Jamir Watkins misses 23-foot three point jumper153–129
- Q452.5Justin Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2153–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:52Anthony Gill makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Johnson assists)PHI 46 – 51 WSH · WSH 20% → 26% +6WSH 20% → 26%+6 pts
- Q26:11Bub Carrington makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Johnson assists)PHI 46 – 54 WSH · WSH 26% → 33% +7WSH 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q22:01Paul George makes 25-foot three pointer (Dominick Barlow assists)PHI 61 – 63 WSH · PHI 70% → 77% +7PHI 70% → 77%+7 pts
- Q227.2Anthony Gill makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)PHI 70 – 71 WSH · WSH 16% → 21% +6WSH 16% → 21%+6 pts
- Q22.9Paul George makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 73 – 71 WSH · PHI 78% → 84% +6PHI 78% → 84%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -14.5
- ML PHI -1200 / WSH +750
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -11
- PHI 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 85.6%, market 88.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -785
- WSH +785 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 127.0 – 112.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1269 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | −41 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Alex Sarr −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | WSH crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +310 Elo | PHI 85.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 85.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 85.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 88.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 112.526th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 123.929th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −11.530th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 108.529th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 119.529th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.6 | Pace | 103.37th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 11th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 11–2628th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15122nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301529 | Elo rating | 126930th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−41 Elo- Alex Sarr left toe−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–34 | 32–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–16 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 17–18 | 30–40 |
| Overs–unders | 39–36 | 42–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–1 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Jan 7WSH 110 @ PHI 131Picked PHI 86%Hit
- Dec 2WSH 102 @ PHI 121Picked PHI 85%Hit
- Oct 28PHI 139 @ WSH 134Picked PHI 64%Hit
- Apr 9PHI 122 @ WSH 103Picked PHI 57%Hit
- Mar 26WSH 119 @ PHI 114Picked PHI 58%Miss
- Jan 8WSH 103 @ PHI 109Picked PHI 78%Hit
- Feb 10PHI 119 @ WSH 113Picked PHI 58%Hit
- Dec 11WSH 101 @ PHI 146Picked PHI 80%Hit