Washington Wizards at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Will RileyPoints20
- Bub CarringtonAssists7
- Tre JohnsonRebounds6
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints21
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- LeBron JamesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–120
- Q419.5Jarred Vanderbilt defensive rebound101–120
- Q421.7Will Riley misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot101–120
- Q444.2Kobe Bufkin makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Drew Timme assists)101–120
- Q41:05Will Riley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Sharife Cooper assists)101–118
- Q41:14Will Riley enters the game for Anthony Gill98–118
- Q41:14Wizards Full timeout98–118
- Q41:14Sharife Cooper defensive rebound98–118
- Q41:15Kobe Bufkin misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot98–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:28Tristan Vukcevic makes 25-foot three pointer (Will Riley assists)WSH 12 – 11 LAL · WSH 10% → 13% +3WSH 10% → 13%+3 pts
- Q15:25Justin Champagnie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Anthony Gill assists)WSH 17 – 15 LAL · WSH 11% → 14% +3WSH 11% → 14%+3 pts
- Q210:27Jaxson Hayes makes 3-foot tip in dunkWSH 28 – 27 LAL · LAL 81% → 85% +3LAL 81% → 85%+3 pts
- Q29:57Jaden Hardy makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamir Watkins assists)WSH 31 – 27 LAL · WSH 16% → 20% +5WSH 16% → 20%+5 pts
- Q29:25Jaxson Hayes makes 1-foot running dunk (LeBron James assists)WSH 31 – 29 LAL · LAL 79% → 83% +3LAL 79% → 83%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -15.5
- ML WSH +850 / LAL -1450
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -13.5
- LAL 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 89.6%, market 89.9%
- Fair odds
- LAL -889
- WSH +889 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 111.0 – 126.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1271 | 1594 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −20 | −45 | WSH: Missing Alex Sarr −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · LAL: Missing Luka Doncic −112 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +374 Elo | LAL 89.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 89.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 89.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 89.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 116.611th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.0 | Points allowed | 114.912th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.4 | Margin | +1.715th of 30 |
| 29th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 116.38th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.6 | Defense rating | 114.520th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 28th of 306–31 | Road vs home | 24–127th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 29th of 301271 | Elo rating | 15948th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−20 Elo- Alex Sarr left toe−6 Elo
Lakers
−45 Elo- Luka Doncic suspended by league−112 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–42 | 41–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 28–17 |
| Underdog | 30–39 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders | 42–32 | 38–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–5 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.