Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Josh MinottPoints18
- Nolan TraoreAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds7
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints41
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Luka DoncicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–116
- Q423.9shot clock turnover99–116
- Q444.8LeBron James defensive rebound99–116
- Q449.4Jalen Wilson misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot99–116
- Q456.8Austin Reaves makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot99–116
- Q41:15Austin Reaves defensive rebound99–113
- Q41:18Josh Minott misses driving floating jump shot99–113
- Q41:29Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot99–113
- Q41:45Jalen Wilson offensive foul turnover99–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:19Josh Minott makes 24-foot three point jumperBKN 84 – 83 LAL · BKN 17% → 26% +9BKN 17% → 26%+9 pts
- Q49:04Ben Saraf makes 2-foot running dunkBKN 90 – 89 LAL · BKN 23% → 31% +8BKN 23% → 31%+8 pts
- Q48:43Austin Reaves makes 29-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)BKN 90 – 92 LAL · LAL 68% → 80% +12LAL 68% → 80%+12 pts
- Q48:19Chaney Johnson makes 6-foot two point shotBKN 92 – 92 LAL · BKN 20% → 28% +8BKN 20% → 28%+8 pts
- Q48:00Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three pointer (LeBron James assists)BKN 92 – 95 LAL · LAL 72% → 83% +11LAL 72% → 83%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -18.5
- ML BKN +1100 / LAL -2100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 93%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -16.5
- LAL 93%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- LAL: Elo 93.5%, market 92.0%
- Fair odds
- LAL -1145
- BKN +1145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 103.0 – 121.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1288 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −56 | +66 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +462 Elo | LAL 93.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 92.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 92.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 92.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.3 | Points scored | 116.611th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 115.114th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.4 | Margin | +1.514th of 30 |
| 30th of 30107.2 | Offense rating | 116.38th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.6 | Defense rating | 114.820th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.7 | Pace | 100.122nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 27th of 308–30 | Road vs home | 23–128th of 30 |
| 1st of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 28th of 301288 | Elo rating | 15939th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–39 | 41–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 28–16 |
| Underdog | 30–38 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders | 33–40 | 38–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 2–3 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.