Minnesota Timberwolves at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints21
- Kyle AndersonAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
76ers- Paul GeorgePoints23
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Joel EmbiidRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–115
- Q417.6shot clock turnover103–115
- Q439.8Kelly Oubre Jr. defensive rebound103–115
- Q441.9Bones Hyland misses two point shot103–115
- Q454.8Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)103–115
- Q41:01Ayo Dosunmu lost ball turnover (Paul George steals)103–112
- Q41:08Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)103–112
- Q41:27Julius Randle makes running layup (Terrence Shannon Jr. assists)103–109
- Q41:31Tyrese Maxey bad pass
turnover (Bones Hyland steals)101–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:42Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three pointerMIN 53 – 46 PHI · PHI 28% → 36% +8PHI 28% → 36%+8 pts
- Q35:02Ayo Dosunmu makes 25-foot three pointer (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 62 – 60 PHI · MIN 40% → 51% +10MIN 40% → 51%+10 pts
- Q34:34Bones Hyland makes 24-foot three pointerMIN 65 – 61 PHI · MIN 47% → 58% +11MIN 47% → 58%+11 pts
- Q34:11Ayo Dosunmu makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 68 – 63 PHI · MIN 51% → 62% +11MIN 51% → 62%+11 pts
- Q32:36Joel Embiid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)MIN 70 – 71 PHI · PHI 48% → 59% +11PHI 48% → 59%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -3.5
- ML MIN +142 / PHI -170
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -5
- PHI 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 68.9%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -152
- MIN +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 115.0 – 118.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −1 | +95 | MIN: Usual rotation · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +138 Elo | PHI 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 116.611th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 116.721st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 113.316th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 113.517th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.4 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 13th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–39th of 30 |
| 8th of 3021–16 | Road vs home | 21–1716th of 30 |
| 24th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149325th of 30 |
| 12th of 301567 | Elo rating | 153314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+95 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–42 | 42–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–34 | 25–16 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 17–18 |
| Overs–unders | 34–42 | 40–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–2 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.