Oklahoma City Thunder at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Chet HolmgrenPoints30
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists11
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds14
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints20
- Jordan MillerAssists6
- John CollinsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–110
- Q415.4Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2128–110
- Q415.4Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2128–109
- Q415.4Aaron Wiggins shooting foul128–108
- Q426.3Isaiah Joe makes free throw 2 of 2128–108
- Q426.3Isaiah Joe makes free throw 1 of 2127–108
- Q426.3TyTy Washington Jr. shooting foul126–108
- Q438.2Kobe Sanders out of bounds bad pass turnover126–108
- Q440.4Jared McCain lost ball turnover (Kobe Sanders steals)126–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:44Luguentz Dort makes 28-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 3 – 2 LAC · OKC 72% → 77% +5OKC 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q19:06Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)OKC 7 – 5 LAC · LAC 17% → 22% +4LAC 17% → 22%+4 pts
- Q16:41Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 19 – 9 LAC · OKC 85% → 89% +4OKC 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q16:00Derrick Jones Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)OKC 19 – 12 LAC · LAC 11% → 15% +4LAC 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q27:47Jordan Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)OKC 44 – 35 LAC · LAC 9% → 13% +4LAC 9% → 13%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML OKC -375 / LAC +295
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7
- OKC 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 75.8%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -312
- LAC +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 116.0 – 107.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1753 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | LAC and OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +46 | +1 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +198 Elo | OKC 75.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 73.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 114.023rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.3 | Points allowed | 112.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.0 | Margin | +1.614th of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 115.310th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.2 | Defense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.9 | Pace | 98.428th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 1st of 3029–9 | Road vs home | 22–1715th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149126th of 30 |
| 1st of 301753 | Elo rating | 156412th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–41 | 41–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 35–40 | 19–25 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 41–38 | 40–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 8–1 LAC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Dec 18LAC 101 @ OKC 122Picked OKC 90%Hit
- Nov 4OKC 126 @ LAC 107Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Mar 23OKC 103 @ LAC 101Picked LAC 50%Miss
- Jan 2LAC 98 @ OKC 116Picked OKC 84%Hit
- Nov 11LAC 128 @ OKC 134Picked OKC 70%Hit
- Nov 2OKC 105 @ LAC 92Picked OKC 66%Hit
- Feb 22LAC 107 @ OKC 129Picked LAC 52%Miss
- Jan 16OKC 117 @ LAC 128Picked LAC 57%Hit