Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints15
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Jake LaRaviaRebounds8
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints28
- Jalen WilliamsAssists8
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–139
- Q420.0Kenrich Williams defensive rebound96–139
- Q423.3Maxi Kleber misses 25-foot three point jumper96–139
- Q427.2Jake LaRavia offensive rebound96–139
- Q427.4Jake LaRavia misses tip shot96–139
- Q427.4Jake LaRavia offensive rebound96–139
- Q430.0Jake LaRavia misses driving floating jump shot96–139
- Q442.7Maxi Kleber offensive rebound96–139
- Q446.4Bronny James misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot96–139
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:09Isaiah Hartenstein makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Jalen Williams assists)LAL 0 – 2 OKC · OKC 76% → 79% +3OKC 76% → 79%+3 pts
- Q110:35Jalen Williams makes 12-foot pullup jump shotLAL 2 – 4 OKC · OKC 76% → 79% +3OKC 76% → 79%+3 pts
- Q110:21Luguentz Dort makes 24-foot running jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)LAL 2 – 7 OKC · OKC 79% → 83% +4OKC 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q18:52Luguentz Dort makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)LAL 4 – 12 OKC · OKC 83% → 87% +4OKC 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q17:07Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 7 – 18 OKC · LAL 8% → 10% +3LAL 8% → 10%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -9.5
- ML LAL +300 / OKC -380
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6
- OKC 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- OKC: Elo 72.7%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- OKC -317
- LAL +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 112.0 – 121.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1608 | 1733 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | +51 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +170 Elo | OKC 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 77.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 77.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 118.65th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 107.62nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.1 | Margin | +11.01st of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 116.48th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 105.61st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.1 | Pace | 100.819th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3024–14 | Road vs home | 32–61st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149520th of 30 |
| 7th of 301608 | Elo rating | 17331st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–33 | 35–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–17 | 32–40 |
| Underdog | 13–16 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 39–37 | 39–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 4–5 OKC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Feb 9OKC 119 @ LAL 110Picked OKC 68%Hit
- Nov 12LAL 92 @ OKC 121Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Apr 8LAL 120 @ OKC 136Picked OKC 77%Hit
- Apr 6LAL 126 @ OKC 99Picked OKC 76%Miss
- Nov 29OKC 101 @ LAL 93Picked OKC 57%Hit
- Mar 4OKC 104 @ LAL 116Picked LAL 58%Hit
- Jan 15OKC 105 @ LAL 112Picked OKC 63%Miss
- Dec 23LAL 129 @ OKC 120Picked OKC 66%Miss