Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints18
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Thomas BryantRebounds6
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints42
- Luka DoncicAssists12
- Deandre AytonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–127
- Q422.7Thomas Bryant makes 1-foot dunk (Nae'Qwan Tomlin assists)113–127
- Q432.6Larry Nance Jr. defensive rebound111–127
- Q436.7Kobe Bufkin misses 25-foot three point jumper111–127
- Q457.4Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes tip shot111–127
- Q457.6Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive rebound109–127
- Q458.1Nae'Qwan Tomlin misses tip shot109–127
- Q458.1Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive rebound109–127
- Q458.9Thomas Bryant misses free throw 2 of 2109–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:58Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)CLE 29 – 24 LAL · CLE 51% → 58% +7CLE 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q11:21Dennis Schroder makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 32 – 26 LAL · CLE 53% → 60% +7CLE 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q11:07LeBron James makes 22-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)CLE 32 – 29 LAL · LAL 40% → 47% +7LAL 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q129.3Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 34 – 32 LAL · LAL 42% → 49% +7LAL 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q24:15Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three pointerCLE 45 – 53 LAL · LAL 66% → 73% +7LAL 66% → 73%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -2.5
- ML CLE +110 / LAL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1
- LAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- LAL: Elo 54.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 117.0 – 119.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | LAL and CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +46 | +61 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +34 Elo | LAL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.4 | Points scored | 116.710th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 114.712th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +2.013th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 116.38th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 114.320th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–14 | Road vs home | 25–127th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149324th of 30 |
| 7th of 301613 | Elo rating | 15978th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–45 | 42–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–40 | 29–17 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders | 36–39 | 38–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–2 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.