Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints34
- Kyle FilipowskiAssists6
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds14
Thunder- Chet HolmgrenPoints21
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–146
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–146
- Q42.2shot clock turnover111–146
- Q426.2Thunder defensive team rebound111–146
- Q429.8Brice Sensabaugh misses 15-foot step back jumpshot111–146
- Q441.1Kenrich Williams makes 1-foot two point shot111–146
- Q450.7Brice Sensabaugh makes 26-foot three pointer111–144
- Q41:05Kenrich Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)108–144
- Q41:18Brice Sensabaugh makes 4-foot two point shot108–141
- Q41:33Branden Carlson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jared McCain assists)106–141
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:37Kyle Filipowski makes 10-foot fade away jump shotUTAH 2 – 0 OKC · UTAH 4% → 5% +1UTAH 4% → 5%+1 pts
- Q110:59Kyle Filipowski makes 12-foot two point shotUTAH 4 – 0 OKC · UTAH 5% → 6% +1UTAH 5% → 6%+1 pts
- Q110:47Chet Holmgren makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)UTAH 4 – 3 OKC · OKC 94% → 96% +2OKC 94% → 96%+2 pts
- Q19:13Chet Holmgren makes 2-foot running dunk (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)UTAH 6 – 7 OKC · OKC 95% → 96% +1OKC 95% → 96%+1 pts
- Q16:42Chet Holmgren makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)UTAH 10 – 16 OKC · OKC 97% → 98% +1OKC 97% → 98%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 96%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
- Market
- OKC -24.5
- ML UTAH +2500 / OKC -9000
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 97%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -21
- OKC 97%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 96.8%, market 96.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -2571
- UTAH +2571 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 107.5 – 132.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1266 | 1747 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | +49 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +592 Elo | OKC 96.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 97.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 97.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 96.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 118.95th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.6 | Points allowed | 107.52nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.4 | Margin | +11.41st of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 116.67th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.0 | Defense rating | 105.41st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.8 | Pace | 100.819th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 26th of 308–30 | Road vs home | 33–61st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 29th of 301266 | Elo rating | 17471st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–38 | 36–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 33–40 |
| Underdog | 35–35 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 46–32 | 40–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–10 OKC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.
- Jan 7UTAH 125 @ OKC 129Picked OKC 88%Hit
- Dec 7OKC 131 @ UTAH 101Picked OKC 82%Hit
- Nov 21OKC 144 @ UTAH 112Picked OKC 91%Hit
- Apr 11OKC 145 @ UTAH 111Picked OKC 76%Hit
- Feb 21OKC 130 @ UTAH 107Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Jan 22UTAH 114 @ OKC 123Picked OKC 90%Hit
- Dec 3UTAH 106 @ OKC 133Picked OKC 87%Hit
- Mar 20UTAH 107 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 78%Hit