Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Cody WilliamsPoints27
- Brice SensabaughAssists5
- Cody WilliamsRebounds11
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints25
- Reed SheppardAssists7
- Amen ThompsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–140
- Q41.5shot clock turnover106–140
- Q423.3Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound106–140
- Q425.9Cody Williams misses free throw 2 of 2106–140
- Q425.9Cody Williams makes free throw 1 of 2106–140
- Q425.9Jeff Green shooting foul105–140
- Q434.0Cody Williams defensive rebound105–140
- Q435.1Jeff Green misses 23-foot three point jumper105–140
- Q458.5Ace Bailey makes 15-foot two point shot105–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:31Jabari Smith Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)UTAH 0 – 5 HOU · HOU 93% → 95% +2HOU 93% → 95%+2 pts
- Q16:30Kevin Durant makes 10-foot two point shotUTAH 11 – 13 HOU · HOU 91% → 92% +2HOU 91% → 92%+2 pts
- Q14:17Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)UTAH 13 – 18 HOU · HOU 92% → 94% +2HOU 92% → 94%+2 pts
- Q14:01Reed Sheppard makes 25-foot running jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)UTAH 13 – 21 HOU · HOU 94% → 96% +2HOU 94% → 96%+2 pts
- Q13:46John Konchar makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cody Williams assists)UTAH 16 – 21 HOU · UTAH 4% → 6% +2UTAH 4% → 6%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 92%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -18.5
- ML UTAH +1100 / HOU -2100
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 93%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -14
- HOU 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 90.7%, market 92.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -1145
- UTAH +1145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 106.5 – 125.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1269 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −14 | +13 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +396 Elo | HOU 90.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 93.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 93.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 92.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 114.420th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.4 | Points allowed | 109.94th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.1 | Margin | +4.58th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 115.49th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.8 | Defense rating | 110.96th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.8 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–413th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–29 | Road vs home | 27–105th of 30 |
| 4th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 29th of 301269 | Elo rating | 159010th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–37 | 32–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 26–40 |
| Underdog | 35–34 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 45–32 | 34–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 3–7 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Feb 23UTAH 105 @ HOU 125Picked HOU 86%Hit
- Dec 1HOU 125 @ UTAH 133Picked HOU 81%Miss
- Nov 30HOU 129 @ UTAH 101Picked HOU 82%Hit
- Apr 2UTAH 105 @ HOU 143Picked HOU 89%Hit
- Mar 27HOU 121 @ UTAH 110Picked HOU 84%Hit
- Feb 22HOU 115 @ UTAH 124Picked HOU 74%Miss
- Apr 11HOU 121 @ UTAH 124Picked HOU 74%Miss
- Mar 29HOU 101 @ UTAH 100Picked HOU 68%Hit