New York Knicks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints22
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds8
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints27
- Alperen SengunAssists10
- Tari EasonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–111
- Q415.4shot clock turnover94–111
- Q439.5Jeremy Sochan makes alley oop dunk (Tyler Kolek assists)94–111
- Q444.1Ariel Hukporti offensive rebound92–111
- Q445.9Pacome Dadiet misses 29-foot three point shot92–111
- Q453.4Pacome Dadiet defensive rebound92–111
- Q454.6Jeff Green misses 27-foot three point jumper92–111
- Q41:18Jeff Green defensive rebound92–111
- Q41:19Ariel Hukporti misses two point shot92–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:00Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three pointerNY 1 – 7 HOU · HOU 55% → 62% +6HOU 55% → 62%+6 pts
- Q29:33Jose Alvarado makes 28-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 31 – 39 HOU · NY 25% → 32% +6NY 25% → 32%+6 pts
- Q25:06Reed Sheppard makes 30-foot running pullup jump shotNY 37 – 50 HOU · HOU 72% → 80% +8HOU 72% → 80%+8 pts
- Q39:27Karl-Anthony Towns makes 27-foot running jump shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 57 – 65 HOU · NY 20% → 27% +7NY 20% → 27%+7 pts
- Q37:28Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)NY 61 – 74 HOU · HOU 79% → 85% +6HOU 79% → 85%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -1.5
- ML NY -115 / HOU -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -2
- NY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- NY: Elo 57.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 110.0 – 108.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1639 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +2 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +51 Elo | NY 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 114.420th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 110.14th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.4 | Margin | +4.38th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30117.3 | Offense rating | 115.110th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 110.86th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.1 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 13th of 3020–18 | Road vs home | 25–105th of 30 |
| 27th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 4th of 301639 | Elo rating | 157111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–38 | 31–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 31–30 | 26–39 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 37–39 | 33–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 3–2 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.