Milwaukee Bucks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Ousmane DiengPoints36
- Ousmane DiengAssists10
- Jericho SimsRebounds20
Rockets- Reed SheppardPoints27
- Kevin DurantAssists9
- Alperen SengunRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–119
- Q41.0Rockets defensive team rebound113–119
- Q42.1Ousmane Dieng misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot113–119
- Q46.3Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Jericho Sims113–119
- Q46.3Bucks Full timeout113–119
- Q46.3Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2113–119
- Q46.3Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2113–118
- Q46.3Ousmane Dieng personal take foul113–117
- Q47.5Cormac Ryan makes two point shot113–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:47Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)MIL 78 – 88 HOU · HOU 93% → 96% +3HOU 93% → 96%+3 pts
- Q48:18Reed Sheppard makes 29-foot three pointerMIL 87 – 96 HOU · HOU 91% → 96% +5HOU 91% → 96%+5 pts
- Q42:39AJ Green makes 31-foot three point jumper (Ousmane Dieng assists)MIL 106 – 112 HOU · MIL <1% → 5% +4MIL <1% → 5%+4 pts
- Q42:05Ousmane Dieng makes free throw 2 of 2MIL 108 – 112 HOU · MIL 6% → 10% +4MIL 6% → 10%+4 pts
- Q455.7Ousmane Dieng makes 17-foot step back jumpshotMIL 110 – 114 HOU · MIL <1% → 4% +4MIL <1% → 4%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -19.5
- ML MIL +1200 / HOU -2400
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -13
- HOU 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 88.7%, market 92.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -1248
- MIL +1248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 98.5 – 118.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | HOU and MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −125 | +9 | MIL: Missing Bobby Portis −26, Myles Turner −17 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +359 Elo | HOU 88.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 89.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 89.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 92.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 114.421st of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 109.94th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.0 | Margin | +4.58th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 115.310th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 110.75th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.3 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–413th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–24 | Road vs home | 26–105th of 30 |
| 15th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149718th of 30 |
| 21st of 301400 | Elo rating | 15899th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−125 Elo- Bobby Portis left wrist sprain−26 Elo
- Myles Turner left ankle sprain−17 Elo
Rockets
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–42 | 32–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 26–39 |
| Underdog | 24–25 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 33–42 | 33–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–3 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.