Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints19
- Ryan NembhardAssists4
- Moussa CisseRebounds13
Bucks- Ryan RollinsPoints24
- Ryan RollinsAssists9
- Ousmane DiengRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–123
- Q414.8shot clock turnover96–123
- Q438.9Moussa Cisse makes alley oop dunk (AJ Johnson assists)96–123
- Q444.4Tyler Smith defensive rebound94–123
- Q448.4Alex Antetokounmpo misses 24-foot running jump shot94–123
- Q454.1Ryan Nembhard lost ball turnover (Pete Nance steals)94–123
- Q41:04Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 294–123
- Q41:04Alex Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 294–122
- Q41:04Ryan Nembhard shooting foul94–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:48John Poulakidas makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)DAL 19 – 23 MIL · DAL 40% → 47% +7DAL 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q13:17AJ Johnson makes 23-foot running jump shot (John Poulakidas assists)DAL 22 – 23 MIL · DAL 47% → 53% +7DAL 47% → 53%+7 pts
- Q12:57Taurean Prince makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ousmane Dieng assists)DAL 22 – 26 MIL · MIL 47% → 53% +7MIL 47% → 53%+7 pts
- Q11:31AJ Green makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ousmane Dieng assists)DAL 24 – 31 MIL · MIL 54% → 61% +7MIL 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q210:21Ryan Rollins makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 33 – 41 MIL · MIL 57% → 64% +7MIL 57% → 64%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -2.5
- ML DAL -142 / MIL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1.5
- DAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 56.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -129
- MIL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 117.0 – 114.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1366 | 1378 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +6 | −129 | DAL: Missing Marvin Bagley III −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +47 Elo | DAL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 110.429th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 116.921st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.4 | Margin | −6.425th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 110.824th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 117.327th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.4 | Pace | 99.224th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–26 | Road vs home | 16–2122nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 30 |
| 25th of 301366 | Elo rating | 137822nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+6 Elo- Marvin Bagley III left shoulder−11 Elo
Bucks
−129 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–42 | 32–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–14 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 25–28 | 23–25 |
| Overs–unders | 33–42 | 33–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 0–5 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.