Dallas Mavericks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints25
- Ryan NembhardAssists7
- Cooper FlaggRebounds9
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints34
- Darius GarlandAssists4
- Brook LopezRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–116
- Q45.1shot clock turnover103–116
- Q45.1Clippers offensive team rebound103–116
- Q45.6Klay Thompson blocks Sean Pedulla 's 19-foot pullup jump shot103–116
- Q429.2Klay Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2103–116
- Q429.2Klay Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2102–116
- Q429.2Sean Pedulla shooting foul101–116
- Q436.9Norchad Omier makes 2-foot reverse layup (Sean Pedulla assists)101–116
- Q452.9Klay Thompson makes 14-foot fade away jump shot101–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:09Kawhi Leonard makes 25-foot three pointer (Brook Lopez assists)DAL 71 – 75 LAC · LAC 75% → 82% +8LAC 75% → 82%+8 pts
- Q33:20Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)DAL 78 – 77 LAC · DAL 23% → 33% +9DAL 23% → 33%+9 pts
- Q32:50Ryan Nembhard makes 14-foot running pullup jump shotDAL 80 – 77 LAC · DAL 33% → 40% +7DAL 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q32:34Kawhi Leonard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kobe Sanders assists)DAL 80 – 80 LAC · LAC 60% → 70% +10LAC 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q32:00Kawhi Leonard makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotDAL 80 – 83 LAC · LAC 70% → 79% +9LAC 70% → 79%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -11.5
- ML DAL +470 / LAC -650
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -10.5
- LAC 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- LAC: Elo 84.4%, market 83.2%
- Fair odds
- LAC -494
- DAL +494 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 112.0 – 123.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1348 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −14 | +30 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +293 Elo | LAC 84.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 83.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 83.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 83.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 114.023rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 112.610th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.6 | Margin | +1.415th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 115.410th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 113.918th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.5 | Pace | 98.328th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–413th of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–27 | Road vs home | 21–1717th of 30 |
| 11th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149321st of 30 |
| 26th of 301348 | Elo rating | 156113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–44 | 40–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 26–29 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 35–43 | 40–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 7–9 LAC in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.
- Mar 21LAC 138 @ DAL 131Picked LAC 70%Hit
- Nov 29DAL 114 @ LAC 110Picked LAC 78%Miss
- Nov 14LAC 133 @ DAL 127Picked LAC 61%Hit
- Apr 5DAL 104 @ LAC 135Picked LAC 77%Hit
- Apr 4DAL 91 @ LAC 114Picked LAC 84%Hit
- Dec 21LAC 97 @ DAL 113Picked DAL 59%Hit
- Dec 19LAC 118 @ DAL 95Picked DAL 52%Miss
- May 3LAC 101 @ DAL 114PlayoffsPicked DAL 70%Hit