Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints30
- LeBron JamesAssists15
- Luke KennardRebounds16
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints45
- Cooper FlaggAssists9
- Cooper FlaggRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–134
- Q45.4Jaxson Hayes makes 1-foot driving dunk128–134
- Q410.8Naji Marshall makes free throw 2 of 2126–134
- Q410.8Max Christie enters the game for Cooper Flagg126–133
- Q410.8Mavericks offensive team rebound126–133
- Q410.8Naji Marshall misses free throw 1 of 2126–133
- Q410.8Jaxson Hayes personal take foul126–133
- Q415.3Rui Hachimura makes tip shot126–133
- Q415.3Rui Hachimura offensive rebound124–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:08P.J. Washington makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)LAL 70 – 75 DAL · DAL 54% → 63% +9DAL 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q37:41P.J. Washington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)LAL 74 – 80 DAL · DAL 58% → 67% +9DAL 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q35:38Jake LaRavia makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (LeBron James assists)LAL 82 – 88 DAL · LAL 23% → 32% +9LAL 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q32:52Bronny James makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaxson Hayes assists)LAL 90 – 97 DAL · LAL 19% → 27% +8LAL 19% → 27%+8 pts
- Q44:06P.J. Washington makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)LAL 116 – 124 DAL · DAL 81% → 92% +11DAL 81% → 92%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -1.5
- ML LAL -125 / DAL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -3.5
- LAL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 64.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAL -114
- DAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 118.0 – 116.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1337 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −116 | 0 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Missing Tyler Smith −1 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +104 Elo | LAL 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 58.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 113.624th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 119.323rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −5.724th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 108.729th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 114.219th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.1 | Pace | 103.54th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 6th of 3024–15 | Road vs home | 14–2524th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 9th of 301594 | Elo rating | 133727th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−116 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
0 Elo- Tyler Smith low back muscle spasms−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 43–34 | 33–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–17 | 8–15 |
| Underdog | 13–17 | 25–29 |
| Overs–unders | 40–37 | 34–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 6–3 DAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Feb 12DAL 104 @ LAL 124Picked LAL 69%Hit
- Jan 24LAL 116 @ DAL 110Picked LAL 61%Hit
- Nov 28DAL 119 @ LAL 129Picked LAL 78%Hit
- Apr 9LAL 112 @ DAL 97Picked LAL 64%Hit
- Feb 25DAL 99 @ LAL 107Picked LAL 76%Hit
- Jan 7LAL 97 @ DAL 118Picked LAL 68%Miss
- Jan 17DAL 110 @ LAL 127Picked DAL 52%Miss
- Dec 12LAL 125 @ DAL 127Picked LAL 53%Miss